[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ is near
the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to near the coast of
French Guiana 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N-08N between 00W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high is centered over Georgia/South Carolina with
gentle to moderate E winds in the E and central Gulf veering to
S winds in the W Gulf this morning. Seas are 3-5 ft across the
Gulf and no significant deep convection is occurring.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S winds will prevail in the
NW Gulf and fresh E winds in the Florida Straits today. A cold
front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon. By Fri
evening, the front will stretch from Fort Myers, Florida, to
Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the
front over the western Gulf this evening through Fri. Northerly
near-gale force winds will be possible in the nearshore waters
between Tampico and Brownsville later tonight into Fri morning.
A low pressure will develop in the western Gulf along the front
which will bring fresh to locally strong winds across the
western and central Gulf on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands westward to Jamaica, where it transitions to a
dissipating stationary front to Honduras.  NE Winds are fresh to
strong through the Windward Passage and south of central Cuba
and Hispaniola, where seas are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere the NE trades
are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean
associated with the eastern N Pacific monsoon trough.  Elsewhere
scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through the
end of the week. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind the front,
with possibly some locally strong winds S of Hispaniola and Cuba
as well as in the Windward Passage today. This stalled boundary
will bring showers and thunderstorms with a potential for heavy
rainfall over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters
through Fri. Moderate northerly swell will move across NE
Caribbean passages into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W southwestward to the U.S.
Virgin Islands.  Winds are SW moderate to fresh ahead of the
front north of 25N and are NW to N moderate to strong behind the
front. Seas are 8-13 ft behind the front in N swell. Buoy 41049
at 27N63W measured significant wave heights of 13 ft at 1200 UTC
with 11 s period out of the NNW. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring in association with the front from 20N-24N between
50W-62W as well as 23N-31N between 40W-50W. Farther east, NE to
E winds are fresh to strong between 25N-31N east of 25W in
association with a broad area of low pressure interacting with a
stationary front along 32N. Seas are 8-10 ft. Moderate
convection is occuring north of 26N east of 24W. Elsewhere winds
are gentle to moderate with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will sag SE, but
gradually stall Fri along 18N, then dissipate this weekend.
Fresh NE winds can be expected along the front, with some strong
winds N of 29N through this morning with winds becoming gentle
to moderate tonight. In the wake of the front, high pressure
will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida
today. The next cold front will push off the NE Florida coast
Fri and bring another round of strong winds into Sat N of 29N.
Moderate northerly swell will move across the tropical N
Atlantic into Sat.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low
to medium ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano. Low
elsewhere. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Landsea/Konarik
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