[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ is near
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N26W. One surface
trough is located along 30W from 04N to 10N and a second trough is
along 41W from 00N to 06N. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 09N and E of 26W, and from 02N to 09N between 29W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of a 1029 mb high
pressure centered over North Carolina near 34N79W. No significant
convection is noted at this time. Fresh southerly winds prevail
across the western Gulf with fresh to locally strong winds in the
Florida Straits north of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 4 ft in the north eastern Gulf and 4 to
6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh S winds will prevail in the NW Gulf and
fresh E winds in the Florida Straits today. A cold front will move
off the Texas coast this afternoon. By Fri evening, the front
will stretch from Fort Myers, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh
to strong winds are expected behind the front over the western
Gulf this evening through Fri. Northerly near- gale force winds
will be possible in the nearshore waters between Tampico and
Brownsville later tonight into Fri morning. A low pressure will
develop in the western Gulf along the front which will bring fresh
to locally strong winds across the western and central Gulf on
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches from western Haiti near 19N73W to the
coast of Costa Rica near 11N83W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted
south of Hispaniola and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
along the stationary front off the Nicaragua and Costa Rica coast.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the southern Caribbean,
S of 13N between 64W and 81W. Fresh to strong winds are noted
across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, N of the
front. Northerly moderate to locally fresh winds are west of the
stationary front near the Nicaragua coast. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas range 2 to 4 ft across
most of the basin with 4 to 6 in the NW Caribbean and Windward
Passage.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
through the end of the week. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind
this front, with locally strong winds possible S of Hispaniola and
Cuba which could diminish by today. Fresh to locally strong winds
will continue across the Windward Passage through tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase over Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico through Fri and bring a potential for heavy rain. Moderate
northerly swell begin to move across the NE Caribbean passages and
the Tropical N Atlantic waters today and subside by Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure extends across the western Atlantic anchored by a
1029 mb high pressure in southern North Carolina. No significant
convection is noted. Easterly moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail off the Florida coast and across the Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos. Seas range 4 to 6 ft. A cold front stretches across the
central Atlantic from 31N50W to the Dominican Republic near
19N69W. Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the
front N of 19N between 45W and 65W. Fresh to strong NW winds
prevail along and west of the front, N of 27N between 48W and 65W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 19N to the Greater Antilles.
Seas ranging from 12 to 14 ft are noted N of 28N between 56W and
68W. Seas ranging from 8 to 12 ft are noted N of 21N between 49W
and 74W.

A 1007 mb low is in the eastern Atlantic near 31N30W with a trough
extending south of the low to 17N31W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted along and east of this system,
N of 24N between 14W and 32W. The convection is moving across the
Canary Islands.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 55W, the northern portion of the cold front
will move east of the area, while the southern part will stall
from 19N to the Mona Passage by Fri and diminish completely by
Sun. Fresh NE winds can be expected along the front, with some
strong winds N of 28N through early this morning with winds
becoming gentle to moderate later today. In the wake of the front,
high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and northern
Florida on Thu. The next cold front will push off the NE Florida
coast Fri and bring another round of strong winds into Sat N of
29N.

$$
AReinhart
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