[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260848
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
04N30W 03N38W and 05N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 22W and
28W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240
nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 38W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through south central Louisiana, to the Deep
south of Texas at the border with Mexico. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely
scattered moderate, are to the northwest of the line that runs
from the Florida Panhandle, to 22N98W at the coast of Mexico.
Rainshowers are elsewhere from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb Atlantic Ocean 31N79W
high pressure center, through central Florida, to the coast of
Mexico near 20N97W.

Strong to near-gale force winds are to the northwest of the cold
front. Moderate winds or slower wind speeds are elsewhere. The
sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 90W eastward, and
from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

A cold front from near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to Brownsville,
Texas will reach from Port Charlotte, Florida to 24N96W to
Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected
behind the front over the western Gulf through Fri, with near
gale- force N winds possible nearshore from Brownsville, Texas,
to Tampico, Mexico, overnight into Fri morning. It is likely for
low pressure to develop in the western Gulf as the front stalls
in this region over the weekend, and may bring fresh to locally
strong winds over portions of the western and central Gulf Sun
into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire
Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 15N northward
from 62W westward.

A cold front passes through 25N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
19N60W, to the eastern sections of Puerto Rico. The front
continues as stationary, through Puerto Rico, to just to the
south of Hispaniola, to 16N77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. Moderate to fresh winds are
within 220 nm of the coast of Colombia, and within 240 nm of the
southern coast of Cuba. Gentle to moderate wind speeds or
slower, are elsewhere.

An east-to-west oriented surface trough is in the coastal waters
of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 18N
southward from 83W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W,
southwestward, beyond the border areas of Panama and Costa Rica.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 60 nm on either side of the trough between Colombia and
80W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 120 nm on either side
of the monsoon trough.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of
broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front from the Anegada Passage to near Jamaica will
dissipate Fri, with fresh NE winds prevailing north of the
boundary until then. Moderate N swell will continue to move into
Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into Atlantic
passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N46W, to 25N50W, 19N60W, to the
eastern sections of Puerto Rico. The front continues as
stationary, through Puerto Rico, to just to the south of
Hispaniola, to 16N77W.  Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the SE of the cold front
from 21N northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W, to the east of an upper
level trough that is associated with the frontal boundary.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are
within 250 nm to the NW of the cold front, and from 20N
northward between 30W and the cold front. Moderate to fresh
winds are to the west and northwest of the cold front. Gentle to
moderate winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 20N northward
between 50W and 70W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet
from 10N southward between 40W and 50W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
20N northward from 30W eastward.
A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that
is near 30N29W, to 21N24W. A 1016 mb high pressure center is
near 25N42W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 27N northward from 24W eastward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W
and 40W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 27N
northward between 20W and 26W.
The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, in the
Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh winds are from 24N northward
from 24W eastward.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Moderate to fresh NE winds along with large N swell follow a
cold front reaching from 21N55W to the northern Leeward Islands.
The winds will diminish as the front gradually stalls along 19N
by Fri, then dissipates Fri night into Sat. The next cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night, bringing
strong W winds north of 29N Fri night into Sat.

$$
mt/ec
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