[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move from
offshore of Florida toward Bermuda through mid-week. Strong to
gale-force NW-N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft will follow the
front north of 29N Tue. Please see the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 14N17W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W
to 03N44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
the equator to 06N between 28W and 43W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 24W and 30W, and from
09N to 11N between 32W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the NE Gulf near Apalachee Bay to
across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers
are possible north of 26N ahead of the front, with light
precipitation occurring west of 92W and north of the front.
Additional shower activity is possible in the southeast Gulf ahead
of a preliminary cold front which extends from the central Florida
Peninsula to the SW N Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are funneling up along the coast of northeast Mexico
offshore with moderate to fresh northerly winds elsewhere behind
the front. Seas are building behind the front, currently 5 to 7 ft
from the Texas coastal waters to off northeast Mexico, and mainly
2 to 4 ft elsewhere as it is taking some time for them to build in
the wake of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast out of the
Gulf by early Tue. Strong NE winds are expected tonight into early
Tue in the NE Gulf as well as along the coast of Mexico from
Tampico to Veracruz. High pressure is forecast to build in behind
the front. Fresh southerly return flow will set up across the NW
Gulf by the middle of the week ahead of the next cold front
forecast to reach the Gulf waters by Thu night. Strong to near
gale force winds are likely behind the front over the far western
Gulf Thu night and Fri, with gale force winds possible Fri off the
coast of Tampico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Hispaniola near 18N72W to northern
Colombia near 11N73W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from
15N to 18N west of the trough to 75W. The monsoon trough extends
from the eastern Pacific Ocean to across Panama into northern
Colombia. Associated scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted south of 12N between Colombia and Nicaragua,
including across most of Panama and Costa Rica. Additional
activity is located inland over northern Colombia. Moderate to
fresh NE-E winds are found in the central Caribbean where the
pressure gradient between high pressure northeast of the area and
lower pressure over northern Colombia is tight. Seas are 3 to 6 ft
across the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft
seas prevail in the NW Caribbean, except 4 to 5 ft near and
through the Yucatan Channel, with mainly moderate trades and 2 to
4 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel
this evening, become reinforced by a second front Tue, then stall
from the Windward Passage to Jamaica to Nicaragua into late week.
Behind the front, fresh NE winds are expected, with locally strong
winds possible Thu in the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate
northerly swell will affect the NE Caribbean passages and the
Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu night and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on an upcoming gale-force wind event over the SW N
Atlantic north of 29N between Bermuda and 75W.

A cold front extends from 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral Florida.
A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N74W to across the northern
Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection
is noted north of 27N and east of the trough to 68W, along with
moderate to fresh southerly winds and 6 to 7 ft seas. Scattered
showers are noted west of the trough to the northeast coast of
Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere north of 27N and west of 65W, with gentle to
moderate SE-S flow south of 27N and west of 65W.

To the east, a trough extends from near the Canary Islands at
30N14W to 22N30W to 20N50W. Tropical moisture is noted within
420 nm behind the trough ahead of complex low pressure and
attendant frontal system north of the area. Moderate to fresh
winds are found north and west of the trough to 40W, along with 7
to 10 ft seas in northerly swell. Moderate to fresh winds and 6 to
10 ft seas in northerly swell prevail elsewhere north of 27N
between 40W and 65W, with gentle to moderate winds north of 20N.
Mainly gentle moderate trades prevail south of 15N, with light to
moderate variable winds from 15N to 27N. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft
south of 27N in mixed swell.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front off the NE Florida
coast will be reinforced by another cold front and will
accelerate off the NE Florida coast tonight, and combine with the
initial front by Tue night, from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba. The
merged front will continue east into late week, while the
southern portions becomes stationary near or just north of the
Greater Antilles. Strong S to SW winds will develop tonight east
of the initial cold front, mainly north of 27N, with strong NW
winds developing behind the reinforcing cold front. In the wake
of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia
and northern Florida on Thu.

$$
Lewitsky
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