[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force winds are forecast to start in about 24 hours from
now, in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front will be along the line
31N69W 21N78W. Expect gale-force NW to N winds, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 30N to 31N between 73W and
75W. Please refer to the following webpage...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from
07N21W, to 05N31W, 05N32W, 03N42W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward
between 20W and 45W, and from 04N southward from 03W eastward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate,
are in the remainder of the area that is from 16N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the coastal waters of Mexico, in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, between the Yucatan Peninsula and 97W.

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, to NE Mexico near
25N98W. Precipitation: developing multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are to the northwest of the line that runs
from the Tampa Florida metropolitan area to the coast of Mexico
near 21N97W.

Moderate to fresh winds are from 90W eastward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the central one-third of the Gulf
of Mexico, and from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

A cold front in the NW Gulf will move SE, exiting the Gulf on
Tue. In the meantime, another cold front will form this morning
over the eastern Gulf. The leading front will move SE, exiting
the Gulf by this evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected behind the fronts, mainly offshore Tampico, Mexico late
today, and over the northeast Gulf tonight into early Tue. High
pressure is forecast to build in behind the front. Fresh
southerly return flow will set up across the NW Gulf by the
middle of the week ahead of the next cold front forecast to
reach the Gulf waters by Thu night. Strong to near gale force
winds are likely behind the front over the far western Gulf Thu
night and
Fri, with gale force winds possible Fri off the coast of
Tampico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire
Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge.

A middle level to upper level trough is reaching the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, from the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to
the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate is in the
coastal waters of Honduras.

A surface trough curves along 71W/72W, from the SW part of the
Dominican Republic to northern Colombia and NW Venezuela.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side
of the surface trough.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from northern Colombia at
74W, beyond northwestward Costa Rica.  Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough between Colombia and 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 90 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon
trough.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of
broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh winds cover the Caribbean Sea from 13N
southward between 74W and 80W. Moderate to fresh winds also have
entered the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate
wind speeds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 2 feet to
4 feet from 79W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet from 17N southward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late this afternoon,
then extend from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by late Tue as
a reinforcing front reaches the Yucatan Channel. Fresh N to NE
winds and building seas are expected across the western
Caribbean through Thu, with locally strong NE winds in the
Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate northerly swell will affect
the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic waters
beginning Thu night and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 31N76W, to the northern coast of
Cuba near 23N80W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 150 nm to the east of the trough from 28N to 30N.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 500 nm to the east of the
surface trough. Moderate-to-fresh SE and S winds are from 26N
northward between 67W and the 31N76W 23N80W surface trough.
Fresh anticyclonic winds are from 28N northward between 47W and
70W.

A few areas of clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, from
19N to 26N between 50W and 70W, are associated with 1000
mb-to-850 mb cyclonic wind flow.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
16N northward from 50W eastward.
A 999 mb low pressure center and related frontal boundaries are
to the north of 31N between 20W and 40W. A surface trough is
along 31N13W 25N20W 22N30W 21N40W 20N50W. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.
The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 21N northward
between 30W and 47W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet
from 24N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from
6 feet to 8 feet, and higher the comparatively more to the north
that one goes, to the west of the line that runs from 31N47W to
24N64W to the SE Bahamas. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6
feet, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh cyclonic wind
speeds are from 29N northward between 23W and 40W. The wind
speeds are moderate or slower, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A strong cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida
by midday today. A reinforcing cold front will then move off the
northeast Florida coast late tonight. The fronts will merge on
Tue as they advance eastward. The cold front will reach from
near Bermuda to eastern Cuba late on Tue.
Fresh to near gale force S to SW winds will develop tonight east
of the first front. Then, fresh to near gale force N winds and
building seas are forecast behind the reinforcing front
beginning early Tue. Gale force N winds are expected just behind
the front, N of 29N and E of 75W on Tue. The front will be
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. In the wake
of the front, high pressure will build in off the coast of
Georgia and northern Florida on Thu.

$$
mt/sk
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