[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move from
offshore of Florida toward Bermuda through mid-week. Strong to
gale-force NW-N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft will follow the
front north of 29N by Tue morning through Tue night. Winds will
continue to be fresh to strong through Wednesday near the front
with seas 10-13 ft. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from
07N19W to 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 02S to 07N between 34W and
44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N
between 20W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 0300 UTC, a cold front extends off the Tampa Bay, Florida
coast near 28N83W to 25N91W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.
Showers are noted along the boundary. High pressure is quickly
building in behind the front with fresh to strong winds in the
northern Gulf. Another front is noted across the Straits of
Florida and western Cuba with moderate to fresh winds behind
that boundary in the southeast Gulf. No significant convection
is noted in the Gulf at this time. Seas range 3-5 ft in the
eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft in the western Gulf with the highest
seas near the northeast Mexican coast.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the Gulf on
Tue. Strong N to NE winds are expected tonight into early Tue in
the NE Gulf as well as along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to
Veracruz. High pressure is forecast to build north of the area
behind the front, maintaining moderate to fresh winds through
Wed. Winds will briefly diminish across the basin Thu ahead of
the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Texas by
Thu evening. Strong to near gale force winds are likely behind
the front over the far western Gulf Thu night and Fri, especially
in the nearshore waters between Tampico and Brownsville. Winds
will diminish Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends south of Haiti from 18N74W to the
northern Colombia coast near 11N74W. Between this trough and the
monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted S of 18N and W of 73W.
Isolated thunderstorms are also moving eastward in the Gulf of
Honduras. A cold front is pressing southward along the Straits
of Florida and across western Cuba near the Yucatan Passage with
moderate to fresh winds behind the front. Moderate to fresh
winds are also noted near the Venezuela coast. Otherwise, light
to gentle winds prevail across the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the front will be reinforced by a second front
that will move into the NW Caribbean Tue. This front will reach
from the Windward Passage to E Honduras early Wed and from the
Mona Passage to E Honduras early Thu before weakening and
dissipating Fri. Behind the front, fresh N to NE winds are
expected, with locally strong NE winds possible Thu in the
Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate northerly swell will affect
the NE Caribbean passages and the Tropical N Atlantic waters
beginning Thu night and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on an upcoming gale-force wind event over the SW N
Atlantic north of 29N between Bermuda and 75W.

At 0300 UTC, a cold front extends off the NE Florida coast from
31N78W to 29N81W with fresh to strong winds near the front. A
second cold front extends from 31N72W to south of the Florida
Keys near 24N81W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 29N72W to
central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along and east of the pre-frontal trough N
of 21N between 67W to 78W. The latest ASCAT data shows strong to
near gale-force winds are noted along the front and pre-frontal
trough N of 24N between 70W and 76W. Fresh to strong
west-southwest winds are also noted N of 27N between 56W and
64W. Seas range 3-6 ft.

In the central and eastern Atlantic, a trough extends from
30N43W to 26N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
east of this trough from 26N to 32W between 35W and 42W. A cold
front extends from 31N28W to 28N35W with a pre-frontal trough
from 30N22W to 24N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the front and trough from 23N to 31N between 20W and 35W.
Seas range 5-9 ft.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, as the reinforcing front
accelerates eastward across the western Atlantic, the two fronts
will combine by Tue evening from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba.
The merged front will reach from 31N60W to the Windward Passage
early Wed, and from 31N50W to the Mona Passage early Thu as the
southern portion becomes stationary. Strong to near gale force
SW winds are occurring tonight E of the initial cold front,
mainly N of 28N. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds are
forecast to develop behind the reinforcing cold front early Tue. A
period of NW to N gales is expected N of 29N, to the SW of
Bermuda, late Tue morning through Tue evening. In the wake of the
front, high pressure will build in off the coast of Georgia and
northern Florida on Thu. The next cold front is likely to bring
fresh to strong winds Fri and Fri night to waters north of 28N.

$$
AReinhart
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