[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160951
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 05N26W and then
resumes from 05N32W to 03N43W. There is no deep convection
associated with the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure positioned just south of Pensacola,
Florida, maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions across the
Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the SE Gulf
waters, including the Florida Straits. Moderate southerly winds
have developed offshore the Texas and northern Mexico coast, with
gentle winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft are occurring
in the SE Gulf and E Bay of Campeche waters, with the highest seas
being present in the Florida Straits. Seas of 3 ft or less are
found elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will move east
and strengthen today. Fresh to strong east winds will develop
over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida through Thu. A
cold front will move through the Gulf Thu night through Fri,
bringing fresh to locally strong NE winds, highest offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak shear line is noted over the NW Caribbean Sea from central
Cuba to Belize. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
this shear line in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, mainly dry
conditions prevail through the basin.

Fresh to strong trades prevail in the south-central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds occurring within 100 nm of NW Colombia.
Fresh winds are also ongoing through the NW Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas of 4-8 ft are prevalent
in the Caribbean Sea, with the highest seas occurring off NW
Colombia.

For the forecast, the shear line will dissipate today. High
pressure building in from the north will cause winds to increase
across the basin, with strong winds expected offshore Colombia
south of Hispaniola. A cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 32N62W to 26N73W, then transitions to
a stationary front and continues into central Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm ahead of the front, N of
28N. Moderate NE winds are occurring to the N and W of the front,
with fresh winds over and west of the Bahamas. A weakening
surface trough extends from 19N54W to 28N58W, but associated
convection has dissipated overnight. To the south of 23N, fresh
trades are occurring within about 120 nm both sides of the trough
axis. An upper level trough is producing scattered moderate
convection from 09N to 17N between 49W and 57W.

Farther east, 1012 mb low pressure has developed near 30N31W. A
weakening cold front stretches ahead of this low from 31N25W to
22N35W, with a surface trough then continuing to 22N47W. Scattered
moderate convection continues within 60 nm ahead of the cold
front. Within about 120 nm of the low pressure center, strong
winds and seas of 12 to 14 ft are occurring. Deep in the tropics,
a surface trough extends from 11N26W to 01N30W. Convection
previously associated with this weakening trough has diminished
early this morning.

Aside from the areas described above, mainly moderate trades
prevail. For areas E of 45W, as well as areas W of 45W but S of
25N, seas are 8 to 11 ft in long period, gradually decaying, N
swell.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the NW basin will
continue to move east, leaving a stationary boundary near 22N
through Wed as strong high pressure builds in to the N and W. The
gradient between the high pressure and the stationary front will
lead to increasing east winds and building seas south of about 28N
from Wed through late Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front will move
offshore NE Florida Fri, then stall from Bermuda to central Cuba
over the weekend. This front will be followed by fresh to strong
northeast to east winds and building seas north and northeast of
the Bahamas.

$$
KONARIK
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