[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N29W, then resumes
W of a surface trough from 05N34W to 04N42W. A surface trough is
along 31W from 04N-10N. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the ITCZ from 06N-09N between 20W-25W. Scattered showers are
along the surface trough south of 08N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure positioned in the NE Gulf of Mexico near
the Florida Panhandle maintains fairly tranquil weather
conditions across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh winds are occurring
in the SE Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits, where seas
are 4-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are offshore the Texas and
northern Mexico coast, with 2-4 ft seas in the area. Gentle winds
prevail elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure centered offshore the Florida
Panhandle will move east and strengthen today. Fresh to strong
east winds will develop over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida through Thu. A cold front will move through the Gulf
waters Thu night through Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong NE
winds, highest offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Central Cuba near 22N80W to
21N82W. A surface trough continues from 21N82W to 17N87W in the
Gulf of Honduras. Total precipitable water imagery shows a
significant amount of moisture in the western Caribbean. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over water from
12N-20N between 80W-88W. ASCAT shows fresh to strong E trade
winds covering most of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds
are northwest of the surface trough and front. Seas are 5-7 ft
across the basin. The highest seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted offshore
Colombia and eastern Panama.

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate
today. As it does, high pressure building in from the north will
cause winds to increase across the basin, with strong winds
expected offshore Colombia and south of Hispaniola. A cold front
may approach the Yucatan Channel Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N 61.5W to 25N73W, then transitions
to a stationary front and continues into central Cuba near 22N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm ahead of the
front, N of 29N. Moderate NE winds are occurring to the N and W
of the front, with fresh winds over the Bahamas and Florida
Straits. A weakening surface trough extends along 58/59W from
19N-28N with no significant associated convection. To the south
of 23N, fresh NE to E winds are occurring within about 180 nm E of
the trough axis. An upper-level low is producing scattered
showers and tstorms from 10N-19N between 41W-53W. The showers in
this area are also being enhanced by a surface trough that extends
from 12N45W to 14N42W.

Farther east, a 1014 mb low pressure is near 29N32W. An associated
weakening cold front stretches ahead of this low from 31N26W to
28N26W to 22N34W, with a surface trough then continuing to
21N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 28N
between 23W-29W. Strong winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are likely
occurring within 150 nm NW of the low pressure center. Moderate to
fresh trade winds and seas of 7-9 ft prevail over the tropical
Atlantic from 10N-23N between 33W-60W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, the front that currently extends from 31N61W to
22N80W will extend from 31N50W to 24N65W, and stationary to the
Central Bahamas by Wed evening as strong high pressure builds in
to the N and W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and the stationary front will lead to increasing east winds and
building seas south of about 28N from Wed through late Thu. This
front will extend from 31N37W to 24N48W by early Fri, with strong
N to NE winds following the front. Looking ahead, a cold front
will move offshore NE Florida Fri, then stall from Bermuda to
central Cuba over the weekend. This front will be followed by
fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas north
and northeast of the Bahamas.

$$
Hagen
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