[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 05N25W and then
resumes from 05N32W to 03N44W. There is no deep convection
associated with the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure positioned just south of Pensacola,
Florida, maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions across the
Gulf of Mexico. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict fresh
to locally strong NE winds over the SE Gulf waters, including the
Florida Straits, while moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds
prevail in the rest of the basin. Seas of 4-7 ft are occurring in
the SE Gulf and E Bay of Campeche waters, with the highest seas
being present in the Florida Straits. Seas of 3 ft or less are
found elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will move east
and strengthen through Tue. Fresh to strong east winds will
develop over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Tue
through Thu along with building seas. A cold front will move
through the Gulf Thu night through through Fri, bringing fresh to
locally strong NE winds, highest offshore Veracruz, Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of
this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The weakening stationary front over the NW Caribbean Sea has
become a shear line that extends from central Cuba to Belize.
Divergence aloft results in widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly W of 80W. A few showers are also noted
between the island of San Andres and Panama in the SW Caribbean.
The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.

Fresh to strong trades prevail in the south-central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds occurring within 100 nm of NW Colombia.
Recent satellite-based wind data indicate that fresh to locally
strong NE winds are present in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found in the rest
of the basin. Seas of 4-8 ft are prevalent in the Caribbean Sea,
with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia.

For the forecast, a weakening stationary front from central Cuba
to Belize will dissipate Tue. As it does, high pressure building
in from the north will cause winds to increase across the basin,
with strong winds expected offshore Colombia south of Hispaniola.
A cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N66W and extends to
the central Bahamas, where it transitions into a stationary front
that stretches to central Cuba. Isolated showers are noted near
the frontal boundary. A surface trough extends from 19N54W to
28N58W and it is producing a few isolated showers near the trough
axis. Satellite-derived wind data depict fresh trades within 200
nm on both sides of the trough axis. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N25W to 22N38W, where it transitions into a
decaying stationary front to 23N47W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 60 nm of the cold front. Scatterometer
satellite data show fresh to strong N-NW winds N of 27N and
between 32N and 38W.

Deep in the tropics, a surface trough extends from 11N26W to
01N30W and it is producing a large area of widely scattered
showers, mainly from 02N to 12N and between 20W and 32W. The
remainder of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions
with moderate or weaker winds. Large northerly swell with seas of
8 ft or greater covers the waters N of 11N and E of 65W, with peak
seas of 10 to 14 ft occurring N of 26N and between 27W and 40W.
Seas of 5-8 ft prevail elsewhere.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue to move east, leaving a stationary boundary near 22N
through Wed as strong high pressure builds in to the N and W. The
gradient between the high pressure and the stationary front will
lead to increasing east winds and building seas south of about 28N
from Wed through late Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front will move
offshore NE Florida Thu night, then stall from Bermuda to central
Cuba over the weekend. This front will be followed by fresh to
strong northeast to east winds and building seas north and
northeast of the Bahamas.

$$
DELGADO
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