[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea and
Sierra Leone to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W to 07N25W,
then resumes west of a surface trough from 08N30W to 03N48W. The
surface trough extends from 11N27W to 05N29W. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between
18W and 29W, and from 05N to 13N between 29W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1025 mb high pressure is centered along the coast of south-central
Louisiana near 29N91W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds dominate
the southeast Gulf, with moderate SE-S return flow in the
northwest Gulf. Light to gentle winds under ridging prevail
elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail in the southeast Gulf, with
seas of 3 ft or less elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-central
Gulf near the Louisiana coast will strengthen some as it shifts to
the southeastern United States on Tue. Fresh to strong east winds
will develop over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida
Tue through early Thu along with building seas. A cold front will
move across the NW Gulf Thu, then across the rest of the Gulf
through Fri afternoon. The front will be followed by mainly fresh
northeast winds, except for fresh to strong northwest to north
winds along and just offshore the coast of Mexico Thu night and
Fri. These winds will be confined to offshore Veracruz Fri night
into early on Sat. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of
this boundary. The monsoon trough extends from the eastern Pacific
Ocean across Costa Rica and Panama to the northwest coast of
Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
south of 11N with this feature. Additional scattered moderate
convection is noted along and offshore of eastern Honduras and
Venezuela from 12N to 16N between 82W and 85W.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted west of the stationary front,
in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the central Caribbean, locally
strong in the south-central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the
basin, locally to 7 ft in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
through Tue. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to support
moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin, pulsing to
strong off the coast of Colombia. The ridge will begin to
strengthen on Wed leading to increasing winds over the central
Caribbean through most of Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas where the
boundary transitions to stationary to central Cuba. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are west of the front, with gentle to
moderate winds east of the cold front. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft
in easterly swell west of 65W to the Bahamas, locally to 7 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N within 90 to
180 nm ahead of the front.

Farther east, a cold front extends down from 31N24W to 23N39W
where it transitions to stationary to 24N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the front north of 29N, with isolated to
scattered showers elsewhere near the front. Fresh to strong winds
are noted north of 30N between 32W and 38W, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere within 60-90 nm behind the front. A 1025 mb high
pressure center is just north of the area near 34N44W. Moderate to
locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the basin. Large
northerly swell with seas of 8 ft or greater covers the waters
north of 11N and east of 65W, with peak seas of 10 to 14 ft north
of 27N between 26W and 40W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
28N65W to 25N70W by Tue afternoon, leaving a stationary boundary
near 22N into Wed as strong high pressure builds in behind it. The
gradient between the high pressure and the stationary front will
lead to increasing east winds and building seas south of about 28N
from Wed through late Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front will move
into the waters off northeast Florida on Fri and reach from near
31N62W to 27N71W to central Cuba By Sat night. This front will be
followed by fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building
seas north and northeast of the Bahamas.

$$
Lewitsky
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