[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends to the coastal border of Guinea and
Sierra Leone near 09N13W. The ITCZ continues from 09N13W to 08N25W
with scattered moderate convection noted from 06N to 10N between
18W to 21W. A surface trough intercepts the ITCZ stretching from
12N26W to 06N27W. The remainder of the ITCZ continues from 08N28W
to 06N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered along the central coast of Louisiana
dominates the Gulf allowing dry conditions to prevail. Winds are
light to gentle in the NW half of the Gulf, with moderate NE winds
occurring over the SE. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

The high pressure centered near the Louisiana coast will
strengthen some as it shifts to the southeastern United States on
Tue. Fresh to strong east winds will develop over the southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida Tue through early Thu along with
building seas. A cold front will move across the NW Gulf Thu, then
across the rest of the Gulf through Fri afternoon. The front will
be followed by mainly fresh northeast winds. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of
this boundary. The monsoon trough extends along 09N from northern
Colombia to the Panama-Costa Rica border. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 90 nm north of this boundary.

Mainly moderate NE winds are in the northwest Caribbean while
moderate to fresh E winds dominate the remainder of the basin,
with localized strong winds pulsing offshore northern Colombia.
Seas average 4 to 6 ft.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate through Tue.
Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to support moderate to
fresh trades across most of the basin, pulsing to strong off the
coast of Colombia. The ridge will begin to strengthen on Wed
leading to increasing winds over the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to the central Bahamas where the
boundary transitions to stationary to central Cuba. A recent
ASCAT pass revealed moderate NW winds west of the front and gentle
to moderate SW winds east of the cold front. Scattered to
isolated showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front, north of
27N. Elsewhere, a 1027 mb high pressure center near 34N44W allows
for moderate anticyclonic flow over the central Atlantic basin
between 32W and 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 65W, while between
50W to 65W seas are 7 to 10 ft.

Farther east, a cold front extends down from 31N25W to 24N41W.
Scattered moderate convection is along the front north of 29N.
Winds across the northeastern portion of the basin are gentle to
moderate with seas of 10 to 13 ft in N swell.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from near
28N65W to 25N70W by Tue afternoon, leaving a stationary boundary
near 22N into Wed as strong high pressure builds in behind it. The
gradient between the high pressure and the stationary front will
lead to increasing east winds and building seas south of about 28N
from Wed through late Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front will move
into the waters off northeast Florida on Fri followed by fresh to
strong northeast winds.

$$
Mora
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