[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends to the coastal border of Guinea and
Sierra Leone near 09N13W. The ITCZ continues from 09N13W to 08N25W
with scattered moderate convection noted from 06N to 10N between
18W to 21W. A surface trough intercepts the ITCZ stretching from
12N26W to 06N27W. The remainder of the ITCZ continues from 08N28W
to 06N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered along the central coast of Louisiana
dominates the Gulf allowing dry conditions to prevail. Winds are
light to gentle in the NW half of the Gulf, with moderate NE winds
occurring over the SE. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

The high pressure centered near the Louisiana coast will
strengthen some as it shifts to the southeastern United States on
Tue. Fresh to strong east winds will develop over the southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida Tue through early Thu along with
building seas. A cold front will move across the NW Gulf Thu, then
across the rest of the Gulf through Fri afternoon. The front will
be followed by mainly fresh northeast winds. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of
this boundary. The monsoon trough extends along 09N from northern
Colombia to the Panama-Costa Rica border. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 90 nm north of this boundary.

Mainly moderate NE winds are in the northwest Caribbean while
moderate to fresh E winds dominate the remainder of the basin,
with localized strong winds pulsing offshore northern Colombia.
Seas average 4 to 6 ft.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate through Tue.
Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to support moderate to
fresh trades across most of the basin, pulsing to strong off the
coast of Colombia. The ridge will begin to strengthen on Wed
leading to increasing winds over the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N25W to 24N46W. No significant
convection is occurring with this front, but fresh to strong ENE
winds are present within 200 nm N of the boundary. Seas across a
broad area of the Atlantic from 10N to 30N between 25W and 55W
average 10 to 13 ft.

To the west, a cold front has now stalled from 32N71W through the
central Bahamas and into central Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 28N between 55W and 65W. To the N and W of the
boundary, moderate to fresh NW winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft.

A mid and upper level low pressure near 18N46W is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 16N to 23N between 40W and 50W.

Elsewhere across the basin, winds are generally moderate, with
seas of 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft near the Bahamas.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, the northern part of the stationary front will
move east as a cold front, leaving a stationary boundary along
about 22N trailing behind it. To the north, high pressure will
build in. The gradient between the high and the lower pressure
with the stalled boundary will lead to increasing winds and
building seas mid to late week. Looking ahead, a cold front will
move into the waters off northeast Florida Fri.

$$
Mora
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