[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
09N13W to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 07N37W to
the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is near the monsoon trough from 03N-10N between 15W-
22W. Similar convection is noted near the ITCZ from 06N-12N
between 34W- 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered over south-central
Louisiana. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
far southeast Gulf between the Yucatan Channel and the Dry
Tortugas behind a cold front which exited the Gulf of Mexico last
night. Otherwise, the basin is free of precipitation. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the NW Gulf with seas of 1 to
3 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are present near the Yucatan
Channel. Mainly gentle to moderate N winds prevail elsewhere, with
seas 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf and 3-6 ft in the southern
portion of the basin.

For the forecast, as the high pressure builds south, winds will
increase in the southeast Gulf into mid-week, with fresh to
locally strong winds possible in the Florida Straits Tue through
Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northern
Gulf Thu night and reach from west-central Florida to South Texas
by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends over the NW Caribbean from western
Cuba near 22N84W to the coast of Belize near 18N88W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 15N and
west of 80W. Scatterometer data from earlier in the day showed fresh
N winds occurring NW of the front and through the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are ahead of the
front. Scatterometer data also showed moderate trades over the E
Caribbean and fresh over the central Caribbean, with strong winds
in a small area near the N coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, isolated
moderate showers are noted in the far SW Caribbean in association
with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Seas are 6-7 ft off the
coast of Colombia and 4-5 ft throughout the remainder of the
eastern and central Caribbean. Seas of 2-4 ft are present over
the NW Caribbean ahead of the front, with 4-6 ft seas in the
Yucatan Channel behind the front.

For the forecast, the stationary front from western Cuba to
Belize will dissipate through late Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure
will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across most
of the basin, pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to western Cuba near 23N82W.
About 180 nm ahead of that front, a dying stationary front
extends from Bermuda to 28N70W. Isolated showers are possible
over the Florida Straits and NW Bahamas with the western front.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are well east of
the eastern front, mainly north of 26N between 58W and 68W.
Scatterometer data from earlier showed moderate N winds in the
Florida Straits behind the westernmost front, but gentle wind
speeds elsewhere west of 68W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are
noted east of the eastern front, mainly north of 28N between 57W-
66W. West of 68W, seas are 3-5 ft north and northeast of the
Bahamas. Seas are 5-7 ft between 64W and 68W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N25N to 27N29W to
26N36W, then stationary to 25N40W. Showers are occurring near the
front. Scatterometer data from earlier showed strong NE winds
within 300 nm northwest of the front. These fresh to strong NE to
E winds extended as far south as 20N and as far west as 56W. Seas
are 12-14 ft north of 24N between 26W and 44W due to a
combination of these strong winds and large northerly swell.
Closer to the NE Caribbean, NOAA buoy 41044 near 21.6N 58.6W is
reporting 16 kt winds gusting to 21 kt and 8 ft seas. An upper-
level low near 21N42W is enhancing scattered moderate convection
from 18N to 22N between 36W and 46W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, a cold moving front extends from 31N72W to the
northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits. The northern portion of
the front north of 25N will continue to move east of the region
through mid week, while the southern portion will stall from
25N65W to the Florida Straits. High pressure building north of the
area behind the front will allow fresh to strong winds and
building seas along the boundary through mid week. Looking ahead,
a cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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