[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
09N13W to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 06N34W to
07N44W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is near the
monsoon trough from 03N-09N between 14W-22W. Similar convection
is noted north of the ITCZ from 07N-11N between 28W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered over southern
Mississippi. Scattered showers are noted over the far southeast
Gulf between the Yucatan Channel and the Dry Tortugas behind a
cold front, which exited the Gulf of Mexico last night. Isolated
showers and tstorms are also seen over the far southeastern Bay
of Campeche. Otherwise, the basin is free of precipitation.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the NW Gulf with
seas of 1 to 3 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are present near
the Yucatan Channel. Mainly gentle to moderate N winds prevail
elsewhere, with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, as the high pressure over Mississippi builds
south, winds will increase in the southeast Gulf into mid-week,
with fresh to locally strong winds possible in the Florida
Straits Tue through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean from Havana Cuba to
21N85W to the coast of Belize near 17N88W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted north of 16N and west of
82W. Recent ASCAT data shows fresh N winds occurring NW of the
front and through the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh
NE winds are ahead of the front. ASCAT shows moderate trades
over the E Caribbean and fresh over the central Caribbean, with
strong winds in a small area near the N coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere, isolated moderate showers are noted in the far SW
Caribbean in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough.
Seas are 6 to 7 ft off the coast of Colombia and 4 to 5 ft
throughout the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.
Seas of 2 to 4 ft are present over the NW Caribbean ahead of the
front, with 4-6 ft seas in the Yucatan Channel behind the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall tonight from Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras, then dissipate through Tue. Meanwhile,
high pressure will continue to support moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the basin, pulsing to strong off the coast
of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to Great Abaco Island near 27N
77.5W to Havana Cuba. About 180 nm ahead of that front, another
cold front extends from Bermuda to 26N73W. Isolated showers are
possible over the Florida Straits and NW Bahamas with the
western front. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms
are well east of the eastern front, mainly north of 26N between
59W-67W. Recent ASCAT data shows moderate N winds in the Florida
Straits behind the westernmost front, but gentle wind speeds
elsewhere west of 68W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted
east of the eastern front, mainly north of 28N between 57W-66W.
West of 68W, seas are 3 to 5 ft north and northeast of the
Bahamas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft between 64W-68W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N26N to 30N27W to
28N31W, stationary to 24N39W. ASCAT shows strong NE winds within
300 nm northwest of the front. These fresh to strong NE to E
winds extend as far south as 20N and as far west as 53W. Seas
are 12 to 15 ft north of 24N between 26W-48W due to a
combination of these strong winds and large northerly swell.
Closer to the NE Caribbean, NOAA buoy 41044 near 21.6N 58.6W is
reporting 16 kt winds gusting to 19 kt and 8 ft seas. An
upper-level low near 21N42W is enhancing scattered moderate
convection from 18N-23N between 36W-43W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, the west Atlantic cold front will slide east
through early this week, before stalling Wed from around 31N51W
to the north coast of Cuba near 23N80W. As the front stalls,
high pressure building north of the area behind the front will
allow winds to increase to fresh to strong along with building
seas along the boundary through mid week.

$$
Hagen
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