[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border areas of the
coastal plains of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 08N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N16W, to 08N18W, and to 10N21W. A surface
trough is along 23W/25W from 05N to 12N. The ITCZ is along
05N/06N from 27W to 44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 12N southward from 40W eastward.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 20N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Florida coast near Tampa, to
the south central coast of Louisiana,
toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are to the SE of the line that runs from the
central part of the Florida Atlantic Ocean coast, to the north
central coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Moderate to fresh winds are in the coastal waters of the Yucatan
Peninsula, and in the Yucatan Channel. Gentle anticyclonic winds
are from 25N northward. Moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the southern two-thirds
of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3
feet elsewhere.

High pressure centered along the Louisiana coast will slide east
by Tue. As it does, E winds in the SE Gulf will increase to
fresh to strong, and continue through mid-week. Looking ahead, a
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, and cross the basin
into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 31N73W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W,
across Cuba near 22N80W, to the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm to the E/SE
of the cold front, and within 400 nm to the NW of the cold
front. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of
broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from northern Colombia at
74W beyond Costa Rica.  Precipitation: isolated moderate is from
13N southward from 75W westward.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, from 80W eastward.

Strong to near-gale winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to
strong winds are within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia between
72W and 76W. Moderate to fresh winds cover the area from the
Greater Antilles southward from 80W eastward. Gentle winds are
in the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8
feet from 17N southward from the Windward Passage westward. The
sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

A weak and slowly-moving cold front, from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras, will stall by Monday, then dissipate Tue.
Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to support moderate to
fresh trade winds across most of the basin, pulsing to strong
off the coast of Colombia. The ridge will strengthen mid-week,
leading to increasing winds in the central Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N25W, to 27N30W 25N40W, and
24N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on
either side of the front. The sea heights range from 10 feet to
13 feet between 30W and 50W from 20N northward. The sea heights
range from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Strong to
near-gale force winds are from the central Atlantic Ocean cold
front northward between 38W and 50W. Strong winds are from 19N
northward between 50W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds are within
400 nm to the south of the stationary front, and within 180 nm
to the north of the front.

A cold front passes through 31N73W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W,
across Cuba near 22N80W, to the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are to the west and northwest of the line that
runs from 31N50W 29N60W, to the coast of north central
Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds are to the NW of the cold
front. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet to the NW of
the cold front and to the north of the Bahamas. The sea heights
are 4 feet or less from the Bahamas southward. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet between 70W and the cold front.

An upper level trough extends from one cyclonic circulation
center that is near 34N29W, to a second cyclonic circulation
center that is near 18N46W, toward the coast of Venezuela near
09N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 16N to 23N between 40W and 50W.

The sea heights range from 11 feet to 14 feet from 20N northward
between 20W and 50W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10
feet from 20W eastward, and from 16N northward between 50W and
70W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 12N to 20N
between 30W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A weak cold front, from 31N71N to the central Bahamas to central
Cuba, will slide east into mid-week. High pressure, building
north of the area behind the front, will allow fresh to strong
winds and building seas along the boundary into late week.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters off
northeast Florida on Friday.

$$
mt/SK
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