[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 40.6N 37.8W at 05/1500 UTC
or 530 nm WNW of the Azores moving SSE at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 38N-42N between 37W-41W. A southward motion is
expected this afternoon through Saturday, and a turn toward the
northeast is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Little change in
strength is expected today and tonight, while slight
strengthening is possible on Saturday.  Wanda is expected to
become an extratropical cyclone in a few days. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: As of 1500 UTC, a
1009 mb low pressure is centered near 27N85W in the NE Gulf. A
stationary front extends east-northeastward from the low across
the Florida peninsula to 31N73W, while a cold front extends
southwestward to Yucatan.  Strongest observed winds over the
Gulf are NE 31 kt at elevated platform SGOF1 in the NE Gulf,
though gale for N to NE winds are likely occuring now over
portions of the NE Gulf.  Peak observed winds in the NW Atlantic
are NE around 35 kt from scatterometer near 29N80W just east of
NE Florida. Peak seas are near 8 ft in the central Gulf and near
10 ft just east of NE Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
noted north of 24N and east of 88W in the Gulf, while scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed north of 23N
west of 66W in the Atlantic. The low pressure will lift east-
northeastward into central Florida by this evening and then off
the NE Florida coast on Sat. Gale force winds are expected in
the Gulf on the west side of the low center through early Sat
morning. Seas should peak around 13 ft tonight in the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Seas should peak around 17 ft tonight and tomorrow
morning over the Atlantic just east of NE Florida. Winds and
seas will diminish over the E Gulf later on Sat through Sun as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Gale force winds
will continue off the NE Florida coast through Sat night as the
low lifts north of the area by early Sun. Gusts to gale force
are expected N of 27N and W of 70W Sat through Sun night. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Near gale force N to NE winds are
currently occurring off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir, according to the ASCAT wind data from overnight. Winds
are forecast to increase to gale force by 05/1500 UTC and persist
through at least 06/1200 UTC, according to the forecast from
Meteo-France. Expect gale force winds from 30N to 31N, and
within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco with peak seas around
possibly 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W to 14N22W. Farther SW, the ITCZ stretches
from 03N22W to 06N34W to 05N47W. No significant convection is
noted along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and near the ITCZ from 01N to 09N between 29W and
45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf.

As of 1500 UTC, a 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 27N85W
in the NE Gulf. A stationary front extends east-northeastward
from the low across the Florida peninsula, while a cold front
extends southwestward to Yucatan. The associated cold front will
move across the SE Gulf today, reaching the NW Caribbean this
evening. Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern Gulf
later on Sat through Sun as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gale-force low over the Gulf of Mexico and associated
stationary front just north of the Bahamas is weakening the N-S
pressure gradient across the Caribbean.  E trades of only gentle
to moderate are occurring over the central and E Caribbean, with
light to gentle winds in the W Caribbean. Seas are 3-4 ft over
the central and E Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere. A pre-frontal
surface trough is present from 22N84W to 16N85W with scattered
moderate convection present from 11N-19N between 80W-84W.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic will continue
to support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a
cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel by this evening.
The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by Sat morning, from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Nicaragua by Sat evening, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of
Nicaragua on Sun. The front could reach Hispaniola on Mon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast
on Mon after the frontal passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about
the gale warning east of NE Florida for tonight and Sat and
about the gale warning offshore of Morocco.

As of 0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Florida
peninsula near 28N81W to 31N73W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 25N75W to 31N70W. Elsewhere, an extratropical low near
37N65W and Tropical Storm Wanda near 41N38W has weakened the
pressure gradient over the tropical N Atlantic, with NE to E
trades only moderate to fresh. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin.
The trailing cold front will stretch from near Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by Sun night. Strong winds and building seas will
follow the front.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low
ash concentration currently. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic
Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Landsea
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