[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 39.1N 37.4W at 05/2100 UTC
or 490 nm W of the Azores moving S at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 37N to 41N between 35W and 38W. A southward motion is
expected through Saturday. Little change in intensity is
expected today and tonight, while slight strengthening is
possible on Sunday. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical
cyclone in a few days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale warning and Atlantic Storm Warning: A 1008
mb low pressure is centered in the NE Gulf near 26N85W. A
stationary front extends east-northeastward from the low across
the Florida peninsula to 31N73W, while a cold front extends
southwestward to Yucatan peninsula. Winds to minimal gale force,
and seas to 12 ft are over the NE Gulf as well as west of the
stationary front over the Atlantic waters. The low pressure will
lift east- northeastward into central Florida by this evening
and then off the NE Florida coast on Sat. Gale force winds are
expected in the Gulf on the west side of the low center through
early Sat morning. Seas should peak around 13 ft tonight in the
NE Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to gust frequently to
storm force over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. Seas should
peak around 17 ft tonight and tomorrow morning over the Atlantic
just east of NE Florida. Winds and seas will diminish over the E
Gulf later on Sat through Sun. Gale force winds will continue
off the NE Florida coast through at least Sat. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. Expect gale force
winds from 30N to 31N, and within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco
with peak seas around 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
07N14W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
and near the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 32W and 39W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N
between 40W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf.

A stationary from extends from central Florida to 1008 mb low
pres near 26N85W with a cold front extending from the low to the
Yucatan peninsula. Gale force winds prevail over the NE Gulf with
seas to 12 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NW winds are
over the SW Gulf and gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in the SW Gulf and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will lift ENE into
central Florida by this evening. The associated cold front will
move SE of the Gulf waters this evening reaching western Cuba and
the NW Caribbean. Gale force winds are expected on the NW side
of the low center through early Sat morning. Winds and seas will
diminish over the eastern Gulf later on Sat through Sun as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the western Caribbean from 18N82W
to 11N81W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the south central Caribbean with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-6
ft range over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic continues to
support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a
cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel by this evening.
The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
Sat morning, from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Nicaragua by Sat evening, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of
Nicaragua on Sun. The front could reach Hispaniola on Mon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua coast
Mon and Mon night after the frontal passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about
the storm warning east of NE Florida for tonight and Sat and
about the gale warning offshore of Morocco.

A stationary front extends from 31N73W to central Florida. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 31N68W to the northern Bahamas.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted west
of the surface trough. Winds to gale force and seas to 12 ft are
found west of the front. Elsewhere light to gentle, with locally
moderate winds, prevail over the tropical and subtropical waters
north of 20N. Seas over this area are in the 3-6 ft range. Over
the tropical waters south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low
ash concentration currently. Marine and aviation interests
should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic
Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, gale center located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico will cross central Florida this evening
and move into the Atlantic off the northeast Florida coast late
tonight into Sat morning. Gale force winds, with frequent gusts
to storm force, are expected just off NE Florida and W of the low
center through Sat. The pressure gradient between the gale
center and high pressure over the NE of United States will also
support gale force winds N of 30N between 77W and 80W tonight.
The trailing cold front will stretch from near Bermuda to eastern
Cuba by Sun night. A reinforcing cold front will follow the main
front bringing increasing winds and seas mainly across the
waters N of 27N Sat through at least Mon.

$$
AL
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