[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 41.8N 38.0W at 05/0900 UTC
or 560 nm WNW of the Azores moving ESE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
40N to 46N between 37W and 41W. A turn to the southeast is
expected today, followed by a southward motion on Saturday. Little
change in strength or slight strengthening is expected through
this weekend. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical cyclone
in a few days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: A 1009 mb low pressure
has merged with the cold front, which extends from the central
Florida coast to southern Mexico. The low will then track ENE
across the Gulf into north- central Florida later this evening. A
tightening pressure gradient between this low and a ridge of high
pressure behind the front over the SE U.S. will cause strong to
gale force winds across the NE Gulf this morning through Sat
morning, where seas will build up to 13 ft. Gale force winds will
also develop this afternoon off the NE Florida coast and continue
through Sat as the low tracks northeast across the Atlantic
waters. Seas will build to 17 ft east of northern Florida through
Sat. Gusts to gale force are also expected N of 28N between 70W
and 77W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Near gale force N to NE winds are
currently occurring off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir, according to the ASCAT wind data from overnight. Winds
are forecast to increase to gale force by 05/1500 UTC and persist
through at least 06/1200 UTC, according to the forecast from
Meteo- France. Expect gale force winds from 30N to 31N, and within
120 nm of the coast of Morocco with seas possibly exceeding 12
ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W to 14N22W. Farther SW, the ITCZ stretches
from 03N22W to 06N34W to 05N47W. No significant convection is
noted along the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and near the ITCZ from 01N to 09N between 29W and
45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf.

As of 0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from Sarasota Florida
to 27N82W to a 1009 mb low near 26N87W. A cold front extends
southwest of the low to near Veracruz, Mexico near 18N94W. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms prevail along and south of the front
from 23N- 27N between South Florida and 89W. Scattered moderate
showers cover the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 88W.
Overnight ASCAT wind data showed fresh to strong N or NE winds
covering the Gulf of Mexico north of the front, while gentle to
moderate winds prevail ahead of the front over the far SE and
south-central Gulf. Seas are near 5 to 8 ft over portions of the
central and west- central Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 8 to
13 ft over portions of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
later today. Buoy 42003 near 25.9N 85.6W is reporting NE winds 12
kt gusting to 16 kt and seas of 7 ft at 1000 UTC. Farther west,
buoy 42002 near 26.1N 93.6W is reporting N winds 18 kt gusting to
20 kt and seas of 6 ft at 1000 UTC.

For the forecast, the low pres along the front will continue
lifting east-northeast into central Florida by this evening. The
front will follow, moving southeast of the Gulf by late Sat. Gale
force winds are expected to develop west of the low by this
afternoon and continue through Sat morning in the eastern Gulf.
Winds and seas will diminish over the eastern Gulf later on Sat
through Sun as high pressure builds north of the area following
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level anticyclone prevails over the Caribbean, but some
scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen in the western
half of the basin, mainly west of 75W. Only isolated showers and
tstorms, with drier conditions are located farther east. Recent
ASCAT wind data shows mainly moderate to locally fresh trade
winds across the basin, with gentle winds over portions of the NW
and SW Caribbean. Seas are to 4 feet over the open waters of the
eastern and central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft in the western
portion of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Atlantic continues to
support moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a
cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel tonight. The front
will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Sat night, and
from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds could develop off the Nicaragua coast on Mon after
the frontal passage. The front will start to stall by Mon as it
drifts eastward into the Windward Passage and the western
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about
the gale warning east of northern Florida for tonight and Sat
and about the gale warning offshore of Morocco.

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from near 31N76W to the
central Florida peninsula near 28N80W. Scattered moderate showers
are north of 23N and west of 68W, including the NW Bahamas and
Florida. Overnight ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds north
of the cold front with gentle winds ahead of the front. Seas to 9
ft currently behind the front will build to 12 ft by midday east
of northern Florida and to 16 ft tonight north of 29N. In the
central Atlantic, a trough extends from 31N4W to 25N41W. No
significant convection is occurring near this feature. In the E
Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N30W to 21N34W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 150 nm E
of the trough, mainly north of 24N. Fresh SE to S winds are north
of 30N within 180 nm east of the trough axis. A stationary front
extends from the coast of Western Sahara near 27N14W through the
western Canary Islands to 31N21W. Fresh NE winds are north of the
front, except strong to near gale force near the coast of Morocco.
Seas of 4 to 6 ft generally prevail across the remainder of the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean, except for the higher
areas off NE Florida and off Morocco and Western Sahara.

For the forecast west of 65W, low pressure will move northward
along the front Fri night into Sat off the northeast Florida
coast. Gale force winds will begin off the Florida coast this
afternoon and continue through Sat night as the low lifts N of the
area by early Sun. Gusts to gale force are expected N of 27N and
W of 70W Sat through Sun night. The trailing cold front will
stretch from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Sun night. Strong
winds will follow the front Mon morning through Tue.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net