[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050510
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 42.3N 38.7W at 05/0300 UTC
or 595 nm WNW of the Azores moving E at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 40N to 46N between 37W and 42W. A turn to the SE is
expected later today, followed by a southward motion on Sat.
Little change in intensity is forecast through tonight before
some slight strengthening on Sat. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: A 1012 mb low
pressure has formed over the southern Gulf, just south of a
frontal boundary. The low is expected to merge with the front
early this morning. The low will then track ENE across the Gulf
into north-central Florida tonight. A tightening pressure
gradient between this low and a ridge of high pressure behind
the front over the SE U.S. will cause strong to gale force winds
across the NE Gulf this afternoon through tonight, where seas
will build up to 12 ft. As the low moves across N Florida toward
the Atlantic late tonight and Sat morning, these strong to gale
winds will shift northeastward into the Atlantic offshore waters
of N Florida. Seas will build to 16 ft east of northern Florida
on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Near gale force N to NE winds are
currently occurring off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir, according to the latest ASCAT wind data. Winds are
forecast to increase to gale force by 05/1500 UTC and persist
through at least 06/0000 UTC, according to the forecast from
Meteo-France. Expect gale force winds from 30N to 31N, and
within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco with seas possibly
exceeding 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W to 14N22W. Farther SW, the ITCZ stretches
from 03N22W to 06N39W to 05N47W. No significant convection is
noted along the monsoon trough or ITCZ, although scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N between 47W-51W in
association with a surface trough that stretches from 10N49W to
02N47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf.

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to
26N87W to Veracruz Mexico. A 1012 mb low pressure is near
25N87W, just south of the front, but this low is expected to
merge with the front this morning, before moving
east-northeastward and strengthening. Scattered moderate showers
and tstorms prevail along and south of the front from 23N-27N
between South Florida and 89W. Scattered moderate showers cover
the NE Gulf of Mexico, north of the front, mainly east of 90W.
The latest ASCAT wind data shows fresh to strong N or NE winds
covering the Gulf of Mexico north of the front, while gentle to
moderate winds prevail ahead of the front, over the far SE and
south-central Gulf. Seas are likely currently 5 to 8 ft over
portions of the central and west-central Gulf of Mexico. Seas
will build to 8 to 12 ft over portions of the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Buoy 42003 near 25.9N 85.6W
is reporting NE winds 19 kt gusting to 23 kt and seas of 6 ft at
0400 UTC. Farther west, buoy 42002 near 26.1N 93.6W is reporting
NNE winds 19 kt gusting to 23 kt and seas of 7 ft at 0400 UTC.

For the forecast, the low near 25N87W will merge with front this
morning, then move to the northeast into central Florida by this
evening. The front will follow, moving southeast of the Gulf by
late Sat. Strong to gale force winds are expected over the
northeast Gulf by this afternoon and continuing into this
evening when the low moves inland. Winds and seas will diminish
over the eastern Gulf Sat through early next week as high
pressure builds north of the area following the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level anticyclone prevails over the Caribbean, but some
scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen in the western
half of the basin, mainly west of 78W. Only isolated showers and
tstorms, with drier conditions are located farther east. Recent
ASCAT wind data shows mainly moderate trade winds across the
basin, with gentle winds over portions of the NW and SW
Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 4 feet over the open waters of the
eastern and central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft in the western
portion of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh N winds and building seas will follow a
cold front forecast to move through the Yucatan Channel tonight.
The front will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Sat
night, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late
Sun. The front start to stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into
the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about
the gale warning east of northern Florida for tonight and Sat
and about the gale warning offshore of Morocco.

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near 31N75W to the
central Florida peninsula. Scattered moderate showers are north
of 24.5N and west of 70W, including the NW Bahamas and Florida
Peninsula. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds
north of the cold front with gentle winds ahead of the front.
Seas to 9 ft currently behind the front will build to 12 ft by
midday east of northern Florida and to 16 ft tonight north of
29N. In the E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N31W to
20N37W. Scattered moderate tstorms are noted along and within
180 nm E of the trough, mainly north of 26N. Fresh SE to S winds
are north of 30N within 180 nm east of the trough axis. A cold
front extends from the coast of Western Sahara near 27N13W
through the western Canary Islands to 31N22W. Fresh NE winds are
north of the front, except strong to near gale force near the
coast of Morocco. Seas of 4 to 6 ft generally prevail across the
remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean, except
for the higher areas off NE Florida and off Morocco and Western
Sahara.

For the forecast west of 65W, low pressure will move northward
along the cold front tonight into Sat off the northeast Florida
coast. This will bring gale force winds in the offshore waters N
of 29N and west of 77W late tonight through late Sat. The low
pressure will lift N of 31N Sun through Mon, with the trailing
front reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon night.
Strong winds will follow the front N of the Bahamas through
early Tue.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Hagen
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