[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 20W from 13N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 07N between 17W to 22W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near
05N22W to 04N37W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered over the western Atlantic. Mostly dry conditions
prevail across the basin due to subsidence from the high pressure.
A trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N90W to 19N92W.
Showers are noted near the trough and isolated thunderstorms are
also observed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east-
southeast winds are occurring across the basin with seas 2 to 5
ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are
forecast today through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong
northeast to east winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight through Sat. A cold front is expected to move
across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun and stall across
the region by Sun night. Expect moderate north to northeast winds
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough stretches south of the SW Caribbean. This is
providing focus for convection in the SW portion of the basin with
scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms occurring S
of 13N between 77W to 83W. Dry conditions are noted across the
rest of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the
south-central Caribbean, S of 16N between 72W to 80W with seas 8
to 11 ft. Fresh easterly winds are occurring in the NW and eastern
Caribbean with seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
central and portions of the southwest Caribbean through Thu. By
Fri, winds will become moderate to fresh and will continue through
Sun night. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate
today and become gentle to moderate by Thu through Sun. Strong
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and the
Windward Passage tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving west across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N77W. This is
bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable winds and
seas 3 to 4 ft across the western Atlantic north of 25N. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds prevail across the Bahamas south of 25N. A
dying front extends from 31N65W to 31N74W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted along this boundary from 28N to 31N
between 63W to 67W. A surface trough extends north of Puerto Rico
from 28N59W to 21N63W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted near this trough from 21N to 28N between 56W to 69W. Seas
range 3 to 6 ft across this area of the Atlantic.

In the central and eastern Atlantic, high pressure extends across
the region anchored by a 1025 mb high east of the Azores.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the Morocco and Western
Sahara coasts. Moderate to fresh winds across the central and
eastern Atlantic south of 25N with light to gentle winds north of
25N. Seas range 6 to 8 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the NW African
coast.

For the forecast W of 65W, light winds will prevail through Thu
across the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue
across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through tonight. Winds
will become gentle to moderate Thu through Sun. By Thu night,
moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida
coast ahead of a cold front forecast to come off the southeastern
CONUS late Sat. The cold front will push across northern Florida
on Sun before stalling Sun night.

$$
AReinhart
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