[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260506
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 23W from 13N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the wave axis south of 08N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave from
04N22W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Outside the
convection associated with the tropical wave described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from the Equator to 11N and E of 16W. Scattered showers are
noted within 200 nm on either sides of the ITCZ between 29W-41W,
and north of the ITCZ to 08N between 47W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb
high centered over the western Atlantic. Dry conditions prevail
across the basin with anticyclonic flow present. No significant
convection is noted across the basin with the exception of a few
high debri clouds moving into the southwest Gulf from convection
over central Mexico. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate southeast winds across the western Gulf and light and
gentle winds near the Big Bend. Seas range between 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow will
dominate most of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. By Wed, gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds are forecast tonight through Sat
night. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse
nightly off the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough stretches westward across Panama into the
eastern Pacific from a 1009 mb low pressure north of Colombia.
Scattered moderate convection accompanies this feature from the N
of Colombia coast west across Panama and Costa Rica. Fresh to
strong trade winds are in the south-central Caribbean south of 16N
between 72W-80W with seas 6 to 9 ft. An area of fresh winds is
also noted over the Windward Passage with seas 3 to 5 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail with seas up to 5 ft.

In the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
central and portions of the southwest Caribbean through Thu. By
Thu night, winds will become moderate to locally fresh and
continue through Sun night. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh
winds will dominate through Wed. Strong winds are expected to
pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage
tonight and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving west across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 31N77W. This is
bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable winds with
seas 3 to 4 ft across the western Atlantic north of 25N. A weak
cold front extends southwest from a 1020 mb low pressure near
31N61W to 28N69W then lifts northwest to 30N73W. Scattered
showers are noted 90 nm ahead of the front north of 27N.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the
southern Bahamas south of 25N. To the east, high pressure also
prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by 1028
mb high SE of the Azores. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of
34W with seas 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of
18N near the African coast and east of 30W. Another area of fresh
NE winds is south of 15N and west of 30W.

The weak cold front is dipping into portions of the western
Atlantic with gentle winds behind it. This front will dissipate
by Wed. Otherwise, light winds will prevail through Wed across the
region. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across the
Bahamas and Greater Antilles through Wed night. Winds will become
gentle to moderate by Thu and through the weekend. By Fri and into
Sat, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE
Florida coast ahead of a cold front forecast to come off the
southeastern CONUS late Sun.

$$
Torres
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