[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 14N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted east of the wave axis from 00N-10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N34W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Outside the convection
associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered
showers are noted within 100 nm on either sides of the ITCZ
between 30W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered over the western Atlantic. With this, dry
conditions prevail across the basin. Latest scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the whole
area. Seas are ranging between 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast
through Sat night, with fresh to locally strong northeast to
east winds pulsing at night off the Yucatan Peninsula with the
typical thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough stretches across Panama into the eastern
Pacific. This is the focal point for scattered moderate
convection in the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 11N and west of 74W.
Fresh to strong trade winds are in the south-central Caribbean
south of 16N between 72W-80W with seas 6 to 9 ft. An area of fresh
winds is also noted over the Windward Passage with seas 3 to 5
ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail with seas up to 5 ft.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central and
portions of the southwest Caribbean through Thu. By Thu evening,
winds will become moderate to locally fresh and continue through
Sun night. In the northwest Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds
will dominate through Wed with strong winds pulsing at night in
the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving west across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N78W. This is
bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable winds with
seas 4 to 5 ft across the western Atlantic north of 25N.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the
southern Bahamas south of 25N. To the east, high pressure also
prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by
1029 mb high E of the Azores. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
west of 30W with seas 4 to 6 ft. Fresh NE winds are north of 15N
and east of 30W. Another area of fresh NE winds is south of 15N
and west of 30W.

Light winds will prevail through Wed across most of
the western Atlantic as high pressure extends over the region.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue over southern
Bahamas and near the Greater Antilles through Wed night. Winds
will become gentle to moderate by Thu and through the weekend.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the
NE Florida coast on Fri ahead of a cold front forecast to come
off the southeastern CONUS late this weekend.

$$
ERA
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