[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that has been
relocated to near 28W from 10N southward, moving W around 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N
between 27W to 30W. The wave has no significant surface
component and is analyzed based upon GFS-based 700 mb tropical
wave diagnostics.

A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added the surface
analysis along 13W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
18W. A surface trough associated with the wave was noted in the
scatterometer data.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissau
near 12N17W to 06N20W. ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 05N26W,
breaks for a tropical wave, then continues again from 05N31W to
06N53W along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 08W to
18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
06N between 20W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 10N west of 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending along 30N just north of the Gulf of
Mexico is promoting generally SE gentle to moderate breezes. No
significant shower or deep convective activity is occurring
today.  Seas are 2-4 ft over the NE Gulf and 4-5 ft elsewhere.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected today
through Sat night as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast
extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh to
locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly off
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat. A cold front is
expected to move across the northern Gulf on Sat night into Sun
and stall across the region by Sun night. Expect moderate north
to northeast winds behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high north of the
Bahamas and a 1010 mb Colombian low is contributing to strong to
near gale NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean today.
Elsewhere E trades are moderate to fresh. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW
Caribbean associated with the Pacific monsoon trough that
extends from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft in the S
central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central portions
of the Caribbean through early Thu as high pressure reside
offshore of the NE Florida coast. Winds will diminish
significantly late Thu through Sun night as the high collapses.
In the northwest Caribbean, fresh winds will dominate today and
become gentle to moderate by Thu through Sun. Strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward
Passage tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving west across the eastern Atlantic.

Ridging from a strong 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at
38N46W extends east-west north of our waters. The pressure
gradient south of the ridge is forcing NE to E trades that are
fresh to strong south of 23N with weaker winds farther north. A
surface trough - associated with a vigorous upper-level trough -
extends from a weak 1022 mb low at 33N61W to 28N69W. Scattered
showers are present from 23N to 30N between 55W to 62W.

In the forecast for west of 65W, light winds will prevail north
of 24N through Thu as weak low pressure just east of Bermuda
interrupts the Atlantic ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will continue across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through
early Thu. Winds will become gentle to moderate Thu through Sun
as the Atlantic ridge extends from the east central Atlantic
weakly W-SW to Florida. Thu night, moderate to fresh southerly
winds will develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold
front forecast to come off the southeastern CONUS late Sat. The
cold front will push across northern Florida on Sun before
stalling Sun night.

$$
Landsea
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