[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Ana is centered near
37.5N 57.7W at 23/2100 UTC or 470 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. There is no
deep convection noted around the storm. Ana is expected to
weaken to a remnant low tonight, then dissipate Mon as it
continues to move to the northeast. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds to gale
force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least 24/06 UTC
and for gales to strong gales the Agadir region at least 25/12
UTC. Meteo- France is also forecasting winds to gale force for
the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are expected
to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are due a
tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See the
High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm
N of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 27N86W to the Yucatan peninsula.
The pressure gradient between this trough and 1024 mb high
pressure centered off northeast Florida is supporting moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in a broad swath from
northwest Cuba across the central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off
Texas. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist over
the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds
through Tue night, and then gentle to moderate winds the
remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse nightly off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Thu
night. Seas will continue to subside to less than 8 ft by
tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are
ongoing off Colombia to about 15N. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
south- central Caribbean through Wed as high pressure remains
over the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected
in the lee of Cuba through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Ana north of the area and
northeast of Bermuda and the gale warnings in off Morocco and in
the Canary Islands.

High pressure of 1024 mb is centered off the northeast Florida
coast near 30N79W. A surface trough extends from 28N59W to the
Mona Passage. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are
noted within 330 nm east of the trough. NW swell related in part
to T.S. Ana is supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over the open waters
west of 65W. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters
north of 20N, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure centered near
37N29W. In addition to the gales off northwest Africa described
in the Special Features section, this pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas south of 20N
and west of 35W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE
swell will continue to impact the forecast waters through
tonight. A frontal trough is supporting some shower and
thunderstorm activity over the SE waters, including the NE
Caribbean. A ridge will dominate the forecast region over the
next several days producing moderate to fresh easterly winds S of
23N, gentle to moderate E winds from 23N to 27N, and mainly
light and variable winds N of 27N where the ridge axis will
prevail.

$$
AL

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