[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ana is centered near 36.6N 59.4W at 23/1500 UTC
or 370 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convection has diminished recently across
the storm, and no significant thunderstorms are observed under
southwest shear aloft. Seas up to 12 ft extend 90 nm in the
southeast quadrant, 60 nm in the southwest and northeast quadrant,
and within 30 nm in the northwest quadrant. Ana is expected to
dissipate through Mon as it continues to move to the northeast,
although winds to gale force may persist longer. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds to gale
force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least 24/06 UTC
and for gales to strong gales the Agadir region at least 25/12
UTC. Meteo- France is also forecasting winds to gale force for
the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are expected
to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are due a
tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See the
High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm
N of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 27N86W to the Yucatan peninsula.
The pressure gradient between this trough and 1024 mb high
pressure centered off northeast Florida is supporting moderate
to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in a broad swath from
northwest Cuba across the central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off
Texas. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist over
the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds
through Tue night, and then gentle to moderate winds the
remainder of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse nightly off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Thu
night. Seas will continue to subside to less than 8 ft by
tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are
ongoing off Colombia to about 15N. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
south- central Caribbean through Wed as high pressure remains
over the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected
in the lee of Cuba through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Ana north of the area and northeast of Bermuda and the gale
warnings in off Morocco and in the Canary Islands.

1025 mb high pressure is centered off the northeast Florida coast
near 30N79W. East of this, an upper trough extends from west of
Bermuda to over the Mona Passage, supporting a pair of surface
troughs between the eastern Caribbean and Bermuda. Divergence
aloft on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms between these surface
troughs, specifically from 22N to 25N between 60W and 65W. NW
swell related in part to T.S. Ana is supporting 6 to 8 ft seas
over the open waters west of 65W. Farther east, broad ridging
dominates the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1034 mb high
pressure centered over the Azores. In addition to the gales off
northwest Africa described in the Special Features section, this
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft
south of 20N and west of 35W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE
swell will continue to impact the forecast waters through
tonight. A frontal trough is supporting some shower and
thunderstorm activity over the SE waters, including the NE
Caribbean. A ridge will dominate the forecast region over the
next several days producing moderate to fresh easterly winds S of
23N, gentle to moderate E winds from 23N to 27N, and mainly
light and variable winds N of 27N where the ridge axis will
prevail.

$$
AL

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