[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ana is centered near 36.6N 59.4W at 23/1500 UTC
or 370 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convection has diminished recently across
the storm, and no significant thunderstorms are observed under
southwest shear aloft. Seas up to 12 ft extend 90 nm in the
southeast quadrant, 60 nm in the southwest and northeast quadrant,
and within 30 nm in the northwest quadrant. Ana is expected to
dissipate through Mon as it continues to move to the northeast,
although winds to gale force may persist longer. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds to gale
force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least 24/06 UTC
and for gales to strong gales the Agadir region at least 25/12
UTC. Meteo- France is also forecasting winds to gale force for
the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are expected
to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are due a
tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See the
High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The northern portion of the axis of a tropical wave was analyzed
moving west at 20 kt through the Windward Islands. No significant
convection is associated with this wave at this time. Analysis of
12 UTC sounding data from Barbados and Trinidad hinted the wave
axis is dampening out. This is consistent with trends in
diagnostic models showing the wave weakening. However, recent
surface observations provided some speculative evidence of a weak
trough moving through the region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N45W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between 36W
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W and 30W, and between
40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak troughs are analyzed over the northeast Gulf and southwest
Gulf. The pressure gradient between these troughs and 1025 mb high
pressure centered off northeast Florida is supporting generally
fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in a broad swath from
northwest Cuba across the central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off
Texas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft persist
elsewhere. A few showers are possible over the west central Gulf,
on the north end of the trough moving across the southwest Gulf,
but otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted.
No significant smoke or haze is noted as well.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds
through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly off
the Yucatan tonight through Thu night. Seas will continue to
subside to less than 8 ft by tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough extendsfrom west of Bermuda to over the Mona
Passage to over the north-central Caribbean south of Hispaniola.
Divergence aloft on the eastern side of this trough is supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands.
Isolated showers are noted in the trade flow in a few areas around
the basin, but otherwise no significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is evident elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds
with 6 to 8 ft seas are ongoing off Colombia to about 15N.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the
central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds
are expected in the lee of Cuba through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Ana north of the area and northeast of Bermuda and the gale
warnings in off Morocco and in the Canary Islands.

1025 mb high pressure is centered off the northeast Florida coast
near 30N79W. East of this, an upper trough extends from west of
Bermuda to over the Mona Passage, supporting a pair of surface
troughs between the eastern Caribbean and Bermuda. Divergence
aloft on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms between these surface
troughs, specifically from 22N to 25N between 60W and 65W. NW
swell related in part to T.S. Ana is supporting 6 to 8 ft seas
over the open waters west of 65W. Farther east, broad ridging
dominates the waters north of 20N, anchored by 1034 mb high
pressure centered over the Azores. In addition to the gales off
northwest Africa described in the Special Features section, this
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft
south of 20N and west of 35W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE swell
will continue to impact the forecast waters through tonight. A
ridge will dominate the forecast region over the next several days
producing moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 23N, gentle
to moderate E winds from 23N to 27N, and mainly light and variable
winds north of 27N where the ridge axis will prevail.

$$
Christensen
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