[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ana is centered near 35.7N 60.5W at 23/0900 UTC
or 300 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm in the western semicircle. Seas up to 12 ft extend 90 nm in the
western semicircle, in the NE quadrant, and 60 nm in the SE
quadrant. Ana is expected to continue moving northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
Slight weakening is expected over the next 24 hours and Ana is
expected to dissipate by Monday. Ana will remain well north of the
forecast waters. However, swell associated with Tropical Storm
Ana will impact the waters north of 27N between 60W and 75W
today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Agadir region.
North to northeast gale force winds will continue through 25/1200
UTC at least. The latest scatterometer data depicts 35 kt
northerly winds in this area. Seas are expected to be rough. See
the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W south of 15N, moving W
at 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave
at this time. The wave could enhance showers over the southern
Windward Islands and SE Caribbean today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N36W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between
36W to 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic and extends
across most of the basin. A trough is off the Florida Panhandle
from 30N86W to 27N87W. No significant convection is associated
with it. Another trough is located in the southeast Bay of
Campeche from 22N91W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near this trough in the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N between
91W to 97W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the NW Gulf
off the southeast Texas coast. Meanwhile, fresh to strong E-SE
winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico with seas 6 to 9
ft. The SW Gulf has gentle to moderate winds with seas 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will
continue across most of the Gulf through tonight. Moderate winds
will prevail across most of the basin through midweek. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse nightly off the Yucatan tonight through
Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the eastern Caribbean near the
Lesser Antilles, from 11N to 15N between 62W to 66W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean near Colombia, S of 12N between 76W to 83W. Isolated
thunderstorms are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to
strong easterly winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6 to 8 ft range over the central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 10 ft seas across the
central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Ana north of the area near Bermuda and the Gale Warning in Agadir.

A stationary front lingers north of the Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, from 28N53W to 19N69W. A trough is to the west of the front
from 26N63W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 19N to 31N between 54W to 72W.
Otherwise, high pressure extends across the rest of the western
Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure off the Florida coast
near 30N75W. Ridging also extends across the central and eastern
Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high near the Azores. Fresh
easterly winds prevail along the Bahamas southward toward
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in addition to near 31N62W. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas range 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh easterly winds will continue
across the Bahamas with moderate winds elsewhere across the
region. Large swell associated with Tropical Storm Ana near
Bermuda will impact the region today. Quiescent conditions are
expected Mon through midweek.

$$
AReinhart
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