[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 35.0N 61.4W at 23/0300
UTC or 270 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
90 nm NE semicircle and scattered moderate convection within 90
260 nm SE semicircle of Ana. Ana is forecast to remain well north
of the forecast waters. However, large swell associated with the
subtropical storm will affect the waters north of 27N between
60W and 75W through tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning for the Canary Islands is no longer in effect.
However, the latest observations and scatterometer pass near the
area shows northerly 25 to 30 kt winds near the Canary Islands.
The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure centered
near 39N32W and lower pressures over NW Africa is supporting gale
force winds near the marine zone Agadir. Outside of the gales,
strong to near gale force winds will cover the area north of 25N
and east of 24W today. Expect seas to build to 12-14 ft offshore
Morocco this weekend, with 9-11 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and
east of 32W. See the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast
products from Meteo France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 13N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm on the east side
side of the wave axis from 06N to 10N. The wave could enhance
showers over the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean
today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea Bissau
near 09N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N32W
to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N
between 15W and 21W, and within the ITCZ between 35W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over the western Atlantic and extends
Into the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong E-SE winds prevail
across most of the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW Gulf and
waters adjacent to eastern Mexico where winds are gentle to
moderate. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over much of the Gulf waters, except
for the extreme SW Gulf where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will
continue to affect the central and eastern Gulf through tonight.
Seas will gradually subside across the Gulf waters through Mon.
Fresh winds are expected to pulse nightly off the northern Yucatan
Sun through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6 to 9 ft range over the central Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas across the
central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected in the lee of Cuba through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical
Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda.

A stationary front extends from Hispaniola northeast to 27N52W
where weakens to 29N46W. A surface trough extends from 25N63W to
21N68W north of the stationary front. Further north, a second
trough extends southwest from the subtropical storm Ana to 27N63W.
Broad area of scattered moderate convection is seen from
Hispaniola north to 31N between 52W to 63W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, fresh Trade winds
prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 25N and east of
26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale force in the
vicinity of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong winds N of 26N and
W of 70W caused by pressure gradient between high pressure off
the eastern seaboard and an old frontal boundary will end by Sun
morning. Large swell associated with Subtropical Storm Ana near
Bermuda will affect the northeast and central forecast waters
through early Sun.

$$

Torres
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