[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Ana is centered near 37.5N 57.7W at 23/2100
UTC or 470 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The upper shear continues to
be strong, and Ana remains an exposed with no significant
convection near its center. Ana is expected to weaken below
tropical storm strength tonight as it continues to move to the
northeast, then dissipate Mon. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 90
nm in the southeast quadrant and 60 nm in the northeast and
southwest quadrants, with seas below 12 ft in the northwest
quadrant of the storm. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Gale Warning: Meteo-France continues to forecast winds
to gale force off Morocco for the Tarfaya area through at least
24/06 UTC and gales to strong gales the Agadir region through at
least 25/12 UTC. Meteo-France is also forecasting winds to gale
force for the Carnarias area through at least 24/12 UTC. Seas are
expected to be rough to very rough in these areas. The gales are
due a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over
the Azores Islands and lower pressure over northwest Africa. See
the High Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo
France at weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N45W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 08N between 17W and 30W and from 03N to 06N between 36W
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough is analyzed from off the northwest tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula to the south-central Gulf. The pressure gradient
between these troughs and 1024 mb high pressure centered off
northeast Florida is supporting generally fresh E to SE winds and
5 to 8 ft seas in a broad swath from northwest Cuba across the
central Gulf to the northwest Gulf off Texas. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft persist elsewhere. A few showers are
possible over the west central Gulf, ahead of the trough, but
otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. No
significant smoke or haze is noted as well.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds
through Tue night, and then gentle to moderate winds the remainder
of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly
off the Yucatan peninsula tonight through Thu night. Seas will
continue to subside to less than 8 ft by tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough extends from west of Bermuda to over the Mona
Passage to over the north-central Caribbean south of Hispaniola.
Divergence aloft on the eastern side of this trough is supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands.
Isolated showers are noted in the trade flow in a few areas around
the basin, but otherwise no significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is evident elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds
with 6 to 8 ftseas are ongoing off Colombia to about 15N.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
south- central Caribbean through Wed as high pressure remains over
the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected in
the lee of Cuba through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Ana north of the area and northeast of Bermuda and the gale
warnings in off Morocco and near the Canary Islands.

1024 mb high pressure is centered off the northeast Florida coast
near 30N79W. East of this, an upper trough extends from west of
Bermuda to over the Mona Passage, supporting a surface trough
reaching from the Mona Passage northward to 27N60W. Divergence
aloft on the eastern side of the upper trough is supporting
scattered showers between these surface troughs, specifically
from 22N to 25N between 60W and 65W. NW swell related in part to
T.S. Ana is supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over the open waters west of
65W. Farther east, broad ridging dominates the waters north of
20N, anchored by 1033 mb high pressure centered over the Azores.
In addition to the gales off northwest Africa described in the
Special Features section, this pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft south of 20N and west of 35W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, long period NE swell
will continue to impact the forecast waters through tonight. A
frontal trough is supporting some shower and thunderstorm activity
over the SE waters, including the NE Caribbean. A ridge will
dominate the forecast region over the next several days producing
moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 23N, gentle to moderate E
winds from 23N to 27N, and mainly light and variable winds N of
27N where the ridge axis will prevail.

$$
Christensen
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