[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING: Gale-force winds are forecast by METEO-FRANCE
off the coast of Morocco, from TARFAYA to AGADIR. The gale-force
winds are forecast to be present until 14/1200 UTC in the area of
TARFAYA, and until 15/0000 UTC in the area of AGADIR. Please,
refer to the High Seas Forecast at the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, or the website:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1910.13
19103842686.html,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09.5N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to
02N30W TO 01S38W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted S of 06.5N between 25W and 35W, and from 01N to 05N
between 36W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida east coast near 26.5N
into the central Gulf of Mexico to 25N92W, then stationary to the
western Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. A northeast-to-southwest
oriented surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate northeast to east winds generally prevail
across the Gulf on both sides of the front, where seas are 3-7 ft.
Strong NW winds continue W of the front offshore of the Veracruz,
Mexico area. Scattered moderate convection of found along and
within 120 nm S of the front between the southwest coast of
Florida and 90W, and W of 94W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W and
93.5W.

The current cold front will move slowly southward and reach from
Naples, Florida to 25N94W to the western Bay of Campeche late this
morning, stall across the Straits of Florida Sat, then lift
northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly
flow will persist over most areas into early next week as high
pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
eastern Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Fair and stable
weather generally prevails across the basin this morning, as
subsiding air associated with an upper level trough extends from
the NE Caribbean to the coast of Honduras. Fresh to strong
tradewinds prevail across south central portions of the basin
south of 15N, with winds to near 30 kt off the coast of Colombia.
Moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, except light
to gentle winds across NW portions.

The Atlc high pressure ridge extends W-SW to the central Bahamas
and will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through early Sat. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish late Sat and Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward and
weakens. Looking ahead, trade winds will increase across the
south-central Caribbean Mon and Tue as high pressure builds across
the W Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE agency, off the
coast of Morocco, until 14/1200 UTC in the area of TARFAYA, and
until 15/0000 UTC in the area of AGADIR.

A cold front passes through 30N65W to 29N75W to near Palm Beach,
Florida. Moderate to fresh Northeast winds prevail behind the
front N of 29N between 73W and 80W,where seas are 7-9 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along and N of the front to
30N.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center
near 33N31W to the central portions of the Bahamas. The ridge is
supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin S of 21N
to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6-8 ft.

The current cold front will sink slowly southward and weaken
through Sat, reaching from 29N65W to the central Bahamas Sat
evening, then gradually dissipate through early Tue as it become E
to W aligned along 26N. Winds will increase north of 25N and west
of 70W by late Tue as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

$$
Stripling
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