[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are
occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco, north of 30N
and east of 12W, in the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. The
gale-force winds are forecast to persist there until 15/1200
UTC. Please refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast at the
website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
13N17W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 04N32W to
01N42W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
05S-06N between 27W-53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 05N-08N between 12W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 14/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Straits
near 25N80W to 24N84W to 25N90W, then continues as stationary to
24N96W to 18N96W. A surface trough extends from 20N94W to
17N91W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 120 nm
of the front over the SW Gulf, generally south of 23N and west
of 93W. Scattered showers are seen over the far SE Gulf, in
between the SW coast of Florida and the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail north of the front with
moderate NE to E winds south of the front. Fresh NW winds are
likely occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
west-central Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The front over the Gulf will become all stationary today, then
lift northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh
easterly flow will persist over most areas into early next week
as high pressure builds north of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair and stable weather associated with subsiding air prevails
across most of the basin, as a mid to upper-level ridge is seen
over the western two-thirds of the basin, with an upper trough
over the far eastern Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia,
with fresh trade winds elsewhere south of 16N and west of 68W.
Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras, with light to gentle speeds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas of 7 ft are measured from a central Caribbean buoy near
14.4N 74.8W at 1500 UTC. Seas of 7-10 ft are likely occurring
over the south-central and SW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the
eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the NW portion of the basin.

Atlc high pressure ridge extending W-SW to the central Bahamas
will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through early Sat. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish late Sat and Sun as the high pressure shifts eastward
and weakens. Trade winds will increase across the south-central
Caribbean Mon and Tue as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Gale-force winds are occurring in the far NE Atlantic, offshore
of Morocco. See the Special Features section above for details.
Outside of the gale area, strong to near gale force winds
prevail from the Canary Islands northeastward to the coast of
Morocco, where seas are likely 10-15 ft.

As of 14/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from a 1016 mb low
pressure near 29N72W to the Florida Straits near 24N82W. A
surface trough extends W from the low to 29N78W. Scattered
showers are along and within 120 nm NW of the cold front. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N to NE winds, north of
30N and west of 78.5W, near the coast of Georgia and NE Florida.
Seas are 6-9 ft north of the Bahamas and west of 74W. A
stationary front extends ENE from the low pressure to 31N64W,
with scattered showers near the front. Surface ridging prevails
elsewhere across the subtropical Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb
high pressure near 34N29W. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and east
of the Bahamas to 35W. An upper-level low noted near 26N30W is
producing a few light showers. Moderate to fresh trades are over
the tropical Atlantic, south of 20N, where seas are 6-8 ft.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will sink slowly southward
and weaken through Sat, reaching from 31N62W to the central
Bahamas Sat evening. The front will gradually dissipate through
early Tue west of 65W as it becomes E to W aligned along 26N.
The eastern portion of the front will continue E over the
central Atlantic, reaching from 31N43W to 25N56W by early Tue.
Low pressure may deepen slightly along the front Sun just north
of the area near 32N57W, resulting in seas over 8 ft north of
29N east of 68W into early next week. Elsewhere, winds will
increase north of 25N and west of 70W by late Tue as high
pressure builds across the W Atlc.

$$
Hagen
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