[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING: Gale-force winds are being forecast by the
METEO-FRANCE agency, off the coast of Morocco, from TARFAYA to
AGADIR. The gale-force winds are forecast to be present until
14/1200 UTC in the area of TARFAYA, and until 15/0000 UTC in the
area of AGADIR. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast at the
website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, or the website:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1910.13
19103842686.html,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to
02N30W, and to the Equator along 34W. The ITCZ continues to
01S40W, crossing the Equator along 44W, and to 04N51W near the
border of Brazil and French Guiana.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N
southward between 23W and 37W.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, in individual
disorganized clusters, is from 05N southward between 43W and
53W. Broken to overcast high level clouds, and possible
precipitation, are from 06N to 16N between 36W and 60W. Isolated
moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida east coast near 27N, to
Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, into the central Gulf of
Mexico, curving to 23N93W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W.
The front becomes stationary at the coast of Mexico, and it
continues inland in Mexico, northwestward, to 23N100W. A
northeast-to-southwest oriented surface trough is in the Yucatan
Peninsula.  Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 90 nm of the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere, to the south and to the southeast of the line that
runs from the Florida Big Bend to the north central Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N.

The scatterometer winds show that strong winds are within 60 nm
of the coast of Mexico from 19N to 21N. Fresh NE winds are
within 250 nm of the coast of Mexico from 21N to the border of
Mexico and Texas. Sea heights of 5 feet to 6 feet are in roughly
the same areas as the fresh winds and the strong winds are.

The current cold front extends from near Ft Meyers, Florida to
25N92W, then stationary to the western Bay of Campeche. The
front will move slowly overnight, and reach from Naples, Florida
to 25N94W to the western Bay of Campeche, stall from the Straits
of Florida into the west-central Gulf on Friday night, and then
move northward and dissipate through Sunday. Moderate to fresh
easterly flow will persist in most areas into early next week,
as high pressure builds to the north of the area in the wake of
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Panama about 65 nm to the north of its border with Colombia,
through the western sections of Panama, beyond 08N84W into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered-to-numerous
moderate to strong, is within 370 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough, in Colombia and its coastal waters, between 74W and 80W.

An upper level trough passes through 20N63W in the Atlantic
Ocean, through the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 13N74W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 14N northward between 63W and 76W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The scatterometer winds show that fresh to strong NE winds are
within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia between 71W and 78W. Sea
heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet are within 360 nm of
the coast of Colombia between 70W and 82W.

The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends W-SW to the central Bahamas,
and it will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. The winds and the seas
will diminish gradually, from Sunday through Monday, as the high
pressure shifts eastward and weakens. The trade winds will
increase on Tuesday, as high pressure builds to the north of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Gale-force winds are being forecast by the METEO-FRANCE agency,
off the coast of Morocco, from TARFAYA to AGADIR. The gale-force
winds are forecast to be present until 14/1200 UTC in the area
of TARFAYA, and until 15/0000 UTC in the area of AGADIR.

A cold front passes through 31N66W to 28N77W, beyond the east
coast of Florida near 27N, and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are to the
north of the line that runs from the Straits of Florida near
24N80W, through 26N70W, beyond 31N58W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N31W, to 31N45W, to 24N60W, and to 25N72W.

The scatterometer winds show that fresh to strong NE winds are
within 150 nm to the north of the cold front between 70W and
72W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from 60W westward.
The sea heights were ranging from 6 feet to 10 feet within 400
nm to the east of the U.S.A. east coast from 27N northward.
Fresh-to-strong E-to-SE winds are within 30 nm of the coast of
the Dominican Republic between 70W and 72W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
18N northward 50W eastward, associated with a nearby upper level
trough.

The current cold front, from 31N65W to 30N75W to South central
Florida, will extend from Bermuda to South Florida by early
Friday, and from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida by early
Saturday. The front will stall and dissipate to the north of
Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday. The wind speeds will increase
to the west of 70W by late Tuesday, as a trough develops in the
southern Bahamas.

$$
mt/SS
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