[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support
gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France
has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through at least 14/12Z.
The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally
gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to
the High Seas Forecast at their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 06N and west of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 26N92W to
19N96W. A surface trough is also noted ahead of the front near
25N92W to 19N93W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
prevails along and within 100 nm on either sides of the front.

Latest ASCAT data depicts fresh northerly winds along the coast
of Mexico west of the front, and moderate to fresh northerly
winds north of the front off the coast of Mississippi. Seas are 4
to 6 ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

The front is slowing down, and will reach from Naples, Florida
to 25N94W to Veracruz Mexico, stall from the Straits of Florida
into the west-central Gulf by Fri night then lift northward and
dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly flow will
persist over most areas into early next week as high pressure
builds north of the area in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient from a surface ridge along 26N to lower
pressure over Colombia is contributing fresh to strong NE to E
trades over the south-central Caribbean and fresh to moderate
trade winds elsewhere, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8
to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the region will continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Sat. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the
high pressure shifts eastward and weakens. Looking ahead, trade
winds will increase Tue as high pressure builds north of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.

A cold front extends west-southwestward from low pressure of
1015 mb near 36N56W southwestward to 28N81W. A surface
trough extends from 30N71W to 27N75W. Scattered showers
are noted along and within 100 nm north of the front.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds north of the
front. Elsewhere, a broad ridge and fair weather conditions span
across the entire subtropical Atlantic. The ridge axis extends
from a surface high centered near 34N28W. Winds are light to
gentle in the vicinity of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh
trade winds are generally south of 20N across the tropical
Atlantic. Seas are 7-8 ft north of the cold front, 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-7 ft south of 20N.

The front will extend from Bermuda to South Florida by early
Fri, and from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sat. The
front will stall and dissipate north of Hispaniola Sun and Mon.
Looking ahead, winds will increase west of 70W by late Tue as a
trough develops over the southern Bahamas.

$$
ERA
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