[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 13 2021

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1745 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support
gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France
has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through at least 14/12Z.
The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally
gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to
the High Seas Forecast at their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to
07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 01N40W to the mouth of
the Amazon River near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02S to 06N between 20W to 50W, while a few scattered
showers linger N of the monsoon trough near the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Peninsula to the south
of the Big Bend area of Florida, then westward to 90W. It
transitions to a stationary front across the western Gulf to
near Veracruz, Mexico. A surface trough is also observed ahead
of the front near 24N90W to 17N93W. Numerous showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms are noted along the surface trough
and scattered moderate showers are along the frontal boundary.
Scattered showers and multi-layered overcast skies prevail
across most of the Gulf of Mexico, south and east of the frontal
boundary. ASCAT data this morning showed fresh northerly winds
along the coast of Mexico west of the front, and moderate to
fresh northerly winds north of the front off the coast of
Mississippi. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft
in the eastern Gulf.

In the forecast, the cold front will reach Naples, Florida to
25N94W to Veracruz Mexico Fri, then it stalls from the Straits
of Florida into the west-central Gulf Fri night then lift
northward and dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly
flow will persist over most areas into early next week as high
pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is across Panama and Costa Rica. No organized
areas of convection are noted in the region, only isolated
passing showers in the prevailing trade wind flow. The pressure
gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to lower pressure
over Colombia is contributing fresh to strong NE to E trades
over the south-central Caribbean and fresh to moderate trade
winds elsewhere, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8 to
11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5 to 6 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the high
pressure shifts eastward and weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.

A cold front extends west-southwestward from low pressure of
1016 mb near 34N60W southwestward to near Jacksonville, Florida.
Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms associated
with the front are noted north of 28N between 73W and 81W. Multi-
layered overcast skies prevail W of 66W and north of the
northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE
winds north of the front. Elsewhere, a broad ridge and fair
weather conditions span across the entire subtropical Atlantic
Ocean. The ridge axis extends from high pressure near 32N30W to
26N64W to 20N40W. Winds are light to gentle in the vicinity of
the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh trade winds are generally
south of 20N across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 7-8 ft north
of the cold front, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-7 ft
south of 20N.

In the forecast, the cold front will extend from Bermuda to South
Florida Fri, and from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida Sat. The
front will stall and dissipate north of Hispaniola Sun and Mon.

$$
Torres
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