[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu May 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support
gale force N to NE winds off the coast of Morocco. Meteo-France
has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through at least 14/00Z.
The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally
gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to
the High Seas Forecast at their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
01N between 40W and 50W. A surface trough is along 10N17W to
01N23W. A second surface trough is along 05N28W to 02N29W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of
06N between 23W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through northern Florida to the big bend of
Florida, then westward to the Mississippi delta in Louisiana.
>From there, the front is stationary across the western Gulf to
near Veracruz Mexico. Numerous showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms associated with the front have diminished during
the past 3-4 hours near the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers
and multi-layered overcast skies prevail across most of the Gulf
of Mexico, south and east of the frontal boundary. ASCAT data
this morning showed fresh northerly winds along the coast of
Mexico west of the front, and moderate to fresh northerly winds
north of the front off the coast of Mississippi. Seas are 4 to 5
ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

The cold front will reach from Fort Myers, Florida to 25N94W to
Veracruz Mexico on Fri, stall from the Straits of Florida into
the west-central Gulf by Fri night, then lift northward and
dissipate through Sun. Moderate to fresh easterly flow will
persist across the basin into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is south of 10N in the SW Caribbean across
Panama and Costa Rica. No organized areas of convection are
noted in the region, only isolated passing showers in the
prevailing trade wind flow. The pressure gradient from a high
pressure ridge along 28N to a low over Colombia is contributing
fresh to strong NE to E trades over the south-central Caribbean
and fresh to moderate trade winds elsewhere, including the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean
and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish Sun and Mon as the high
pressure shifts eastward and weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale
Warning near Agadir.

A cold front extends west-southwest from a surface low near
33N70W to near Jacksonville Florida. Widespread showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms associated with the front are noted
north of 28N between 73W and 81W. Scatterometer data shows fresh
to strong NE winds north of the front. Elsewhere, a broad ridge
and fair weather conditions span across the entire subtropical
Atlantic Ocean. The ridge axis extends from high pressure near
32N29W to 27N65W to 28N77W. Winds are light to gentle in the
vicinity of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh trade winds
are generally south of 20N across the tropical Atlantic. Seas
are 7-8 ft north of the cold front, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of
20N, and 6-7 ft south of 20N.

The cold front will move east of northern Florida this morning,
extend from Bermuda to South Florida on Fri, and from 31N65W to
the Straits of Florida Sat. The front will stall and dissipate
north of Hispaniola Sun and Mon. High pressure will continue
across the remainder of the region through Sun.


$$
Mundell
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net