[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...Special Features...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer pass shows near
gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, particularly
from 11N-14N between 72W-77W. High pressure located N of the
Caribbean Sea, just E of Bermuda combined with the Colombian low
will support fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale
force, within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through early
Tue morning. Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Seas are expected to
build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds tonight into early
Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through near the
Sierra Leone/Guinea border at 09N13W, then continues SW to near
02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 03N40W to the mouth of the
Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from the Equator to 03N between 06W-11W, from 01N-04N between
20W-25W, within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 25W and 40W, and from
02N-05N between 42W-53W. The latter convective activity is affecting
French Guiana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf waters. Generally
gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail over the eastern half of
the Gulf while moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted
over the western half. A recent scatterometer pass clearly shows
the wind shift associated with the trough located near the W side
of the Yucatan peninsula, with fresh E-SE winds affecting the
waters from 21N to 23N between 88W and 91W. Seas are generally 4
to 6 ft W of 90W based on altimeter data, and 3-4 E of 90W. Some
high clouds are spreading across central Mexico into the western
Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are near the Mississippi coast and
over SE Louisiana.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and
lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds across the W Gulf through Tue. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds will be associated with this trough. A
frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf coast
through Tue night producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front
across the Gulf on Wed, and it is expected to exit the basin by
Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will
follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning has been issued near the coast of Colombia for
frequent gusts to gale force. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras,
with fresh NE-E winds in the Windward passage. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8-10 ft over the south-central
Caribbean, 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 4-7 ft elsewhere,
except 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

A diffluent pattern aloft continues to support abundant cloudiness
and some shower activity over the eastern Caribbean. Plenty of
moisture will persist in that region through tonight, and combine
with the local effects to maintain the chance of showers over
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from 31N56W to 26N70W. Scattered showers
are near the trough axis. A ridge, anchored on a 1026 mb high
pressure located just E of Bermuda, dominates the forecast waters
W of 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted across the
western periphery of the ridge and ahead of a frontal boundary
located over the SE of United States. The remainder of the Atlantic
is also under the influence of a ridge, with another high pressure
center of 1026 mb localed near 31N44W. Farther E, another high
pressure of 1023 mb is analyzed SW of the Azores and near 36N29W.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted per scatterometer data across
the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5-7 ft.

The next cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic
on Wed and stall near 31N on Thu. A low will develop along the front
on Fri allowing the front to move across the waters N of 27N and
W of 60W through late Sat while weakening. High pressure will follow
the front. Expect building seas of 8-10 ft in northerly swell N of
30N and W of 77W Thu through Fri.

$$
GR
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