[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...Special Features...

Caribbean Gale: Ridge north of the area will interact with low
pressure near the coast of Colombia. The tight pressure gradient
over the basin will support fresh to strong trades with frequent
gusts to gale force winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. This
conditions will continue over south-central Caribbean through
Thursday night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, then continues SW to near 01N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 01N25W to 02N38W to the Amazon River near 00N49W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to
05N between 19W-28W, and within 200 nm N of the ITCZ between 39W
and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates most of Gulf waters anchored by 1026 mb high
pressure located in the western Atlantic near Bermuda. Generally
moderate S to SE winds prevail over the eastern half of the Gulf
basin while moderate to fresh S to SE winds are noted over the
western half, increasing over the NW portion. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft W of 90W, except locally 6 feet over the NW Gulf. East
of 90W, seas are 3 to 4 ft. Other than some scattered showers
across the Florida Everglades, fair weather continues over the
entire Gulf. Debri cirrus clouds extend E to near 94W across the
western Gulf due to thunderstorm activity over central Mexico.

In the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will
continue tonight across the NW Gulf. A surface trough currently
from 23N88W to 17N91W, will continue to develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this
trough. A stationary front will linger across the northern Gulf
coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the boundary.
Building high pressure across the SE CONUS will push the front
across the Gulf on Thu and is expected to exit the basin by Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong E to NE
trades occurring over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
particularly S of 15N between 67W and 77W. Generally moderate
trades currently prevail elsewhere across the basin. A low-level
trough across the southern Caribbean along 77W continues to
interact with a diffluent pattern aloft east of the trough to
support scattered moderate convection S of 18N between 61W and
72W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with
locally 10 ft north of the Venezuela and mainly 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere.

A ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds and building seas over the south-central Caribbean through
Thu night. By Fri, fresh winds will still prevail in this region
with a smaller area of strong winds near the coast of Colombia.
Winds will also pulse fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of
Honduras through Thu night. A surge in moisture is bringing
showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Caribbean which is
expected to continue through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the frontal boundary near 30N56W
and continues to 27N62W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted within 100 n mi of the front to the E of
59W. A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 31N63W producing
light to gentle winds N of 28N W of 60W. Mainly moderate winds are
noted elsewhere W of 75W. A broad ridge of high pressure anchored
by a 1028 mb high centered near 31N43W dominates much of the
remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic basin,
producing moderate to fresh trades S of 24N, and mostly gentle to
moderate winds N of 24N. The only other notable features in the
area are a surface trough extending from 25N29W to 27N44W
producing isolated moderate convection, and a Second trough across
the Canary Islands with scattered showers in the vicinity. Seas
are generally 3 to 5 ft N of 24N, and 5 to 7 ft S of 24N.

A ridge dominates the forecast waters. The next cold front will
move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed and stall on
Thu. A low will develop along the front on Fri and continue
pushing south and east through Fri night.

&&
MTorres
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