[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...Special Features...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the
Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through early Tue morning.
Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-
central Caribbean through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 11 or
12 ft with the strongest winds tonight into early Tue morning.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Sierra
Leon/Guinea border at 09N13W, then continues southwestward to
near equator at 25W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N37W and to near the equator at
44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-31W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-35W.
Other scattered moderate convection is west and northwest of the
ITCZ from the equator to 05N and west of 46W to inland French
Guiana and Suriname.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Atlantic high pressure extends westward across central Florida
and to the central Gulf waters. The overnight Yucatan Peninsula
trough has shifted westward into the far eastern Bay of Campeche,
but is weakening. Generally gentle to moderate southeast winds
are over the eastern half of the Gulf while moderate to locally
fresh southeast to south winds are noted over the western half of
the Gulf as noted in a recent ASCAT pass there. Seas are
generally 4-6 ft W of 90W, and 3-4 east of 90W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are over the far northern Gulf north of 28N and
between 85W-90W. A series of upper-level disturbance along with
plenty of instability in that part of the Gulf should allow for
this activity to remain quite active through the rest of the
afternoon. Frequent lightning and strong gusty winds can be
expected with this activity. Scattered to broken high clouds are
streaming eastward from central Mexico to the western Gulf south
of 27N.

As for the forecast: The pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will
continue to support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
across the W Gulf through Tue. A surface trough will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf
by morning. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated
with this trough. A frontal boundary will linger across the
northern Gulf coast through Tue night. Building high pressure
across the SE CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Wed,
and it is expected to exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning in currently in effect for near the coast of
Colombia for frequent gusts to gale force. Please, see the Special
Features section for more details.

A partial ASCAT pass from this morning showed fresh to strong
trade winds over the south- central Caribbean. Similar winds are
in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds are
occurring. Seas are 8-11 ft over the south- central Caribbean, 5-7
ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in
the lee of Cuba.

A diffluent pattern aloft east of an upper-level trough axis
continues to support abundant cloudiness and some shower activity
over the eastern Caribbean. Plenty of atmospheric moisture will
persist in that region through tonight, and combine with the local
effects to maintain unsettled weather in the form of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over and near Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.

As for the forecast: Fresh to strong trade winds will continue
over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue
night. A moisture surge will continue to affect the eastern
Caribbean through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from near 31N55W to 28N60W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough. A ridge extending from
a 1076 mb high center east of Bermuda, dominates the forecast
waters W of 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted
across the western periphery of the ridge and ahead of a frontal
boundary located over the southeastern United States. The
remainder of the Atlantic is also under the influence of a ridge,
with another high pressure center of 1027 mb localed near 31N45W.
Farther east, another high pressure center of 1026 mb is analyzed
to the southwest of the Azores and near 35N79W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds as depicted in ASCAT data from this morning are
across the majority of the tropical Atlantic waters, along
with seas in the range of 5-7 ft.

As for the forecast: The next cold front will move southward
across the western Atlantic on Wed and stall near 31N on Thu. A
low will develop along the front on Fri allowing the front to move
across the northern forecast waters through late Sat while
weakening. High pressure will follow the front.

$$
Aguirre
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