[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 06N17W to 03N26W. The ITCZ is south of the equator
between 35W and 44W, and continues from 00N44W to 01N49W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N
between 10W and 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf, and extends from Lake
Charles LA to Brownsville TX. Although active convection is
occurring ahead of the front along the U.S. gulf coast, very few
showers are associated with the frontal boundary over the Gulf
waters. A 1009 mb area of low pressure is analyzed in the SW Gulf
near Veracruz at 21N96W, and pre-frontal trough extends north of
the low to the cold front. A weak surface trough is drifting west
in the eastern Bay of Campeche, from 24N91W to 19N92W. Fresh SE
winds are east of the trough axis, north of the Yucatan peninsula.
Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural fires over
southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the SW Gulf of
Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to continue for
several more days.

The cold front will stall over the northern Gulf later today.
Reinforcing cool air will push the eastern part of the front to
the Yucatan Channel Fri night. Winds and seas will slowly diminish
across the basin through early Sat. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds are expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds continue north of Honduras in the NW
Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery shows a
line of moderate showers, associated with the monsoon trough that
extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama to northern
Colombia, along 10N between 76W and 79W. Isolated showers are
noted north of Venezuela in the SE Caribbean, and fair weather
conditions prevail elsewhere across the basin. High pressure north
of the area is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, with
seas generally 4 to 5 ft, except north of Honduras, where the
stronger winds are producing 6 to 8 ft seas in the NW Caribbean.

The ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds
over much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will
continue in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of Honduras, through
tonight. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America are expected to continue through the end
of the week. Stronger trades are likely in the central Caribbean
on Sun as high pressure builds to the north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 36N24W, 33N38W,
32N52W, and a 1021 mb high near 28N62W. This ridge is responsible
for a large, expansive area of light to gentle winds, 2 to 4 ft
seas, and fair weather across most of the central Atlantic Ocean,
north of 15N-20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail across the waters south of 15N-20N. An area of isolated
moderate shower activity is noted east of northern Florida, north
of 28N between 75W and 79W.

West of 65W, the ridge along 27N to 28N will support gentle to
moderate winds across most of the region through tonight. A cold
front will move east of northern Florida Thu night, and reach from
31N76W to the Straits of Florida on Fri. The northern part of the
front will continue eastward across the northern forecast waters
through Sat night. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may
precede the front.

$$
Mundell
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