[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N15W southwestward to 02N25W. The ITCZ begins near 04S30W and
continues northwestward to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 09N
between 09W to 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also
observed from 02N to 04N between 28W to 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front moved into NW extending from Cameron, LA to South
Padre Island near the southern tip of Texas. The latest
scatterometer pass depicts moderate NE winds behind the front,
while gentle E winds are observed to the east. Fresh to strong
SE winds prevail in the central Gulf, with moderate to fresh
return flow elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Gulf and 3-
5 ft within the Bay of Campeche and along the Florida coast
including within the Florida Straits. Smoke and haze from
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America may
reduce visibilities at times over the western and central Gulf.

The cold front will reach from near Mobile, Alabama to the SW
Gulf early Wed, then stall over the northern Gulf through Wed
night. The fresh to strong southeast winds will diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds Wed. The cold front will move
southeastward across the rest of the basin Thu through Fri.
Fresh to strong northeast winds will follow in behind the front
tonight into Wed. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected
across the western and central Gulf this weekend and into early
next week as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts
eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western
Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting
fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean
within the Gulf of Honduras with seas up to 7 ft. Trade winds
are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the Caribbean with
seas ranging from 4-6 ft. Scattered convection associated with
the Pacific monsoon trough axis extending across Panama is
located in the southwestern Caribbean offshore of Panamas and
Costa Rica. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wildfires over
Central America are reducing visibilities below 6 nm in the Gulf
of Honduras.

The ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds
across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds
will continue in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Honduras through Wed night. Hazy sky conditions and areas of
smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are expected
to continue through the end of the week. Stronger trade winds
are likely over the central Caribbean this weekend and into
early next week as Atlantic high pressure strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pre-frontal trough along the SE U.S. is allowing for isolated
convection to linger within 100 nm offshore of northeast Florida
in the western Atlantic, north of 29N. Winds ahead of the trough
are moderate from the south. Surface riding prevails extending
westward from a 1023 mb high located near 28N63W. High pressure
dominates the northern tropical Atlantic, allowing for gentle to
moderate trade wind easterly flow over most of the basin. An
area of fresh to locally strong NE winds is in the far eastern
Atlantic near the Canary Islands, extending to 20N. Seas north
of 20N and west of 60W are 4-6 ft with mainly 5-6 ft seas
elsewhere.

West of 65W, the gradient associated with a high pressure ridge
near 28N will support gentle to moderate winds across most of
the region through Wed night. A cold front is expected to move
over the far northwest waters early Thu and reach from near
31N76W to the Straits of Florida early on Fri. The portion of
the front north of 25N will continue eastward to the far eastern
waters Sat night while gradually weakening, and as high pressure
builds over the area into early next week. Scattered showers and
isolated will precede the front.


$$
Mora
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