[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N14W to 04N24W to 01S30W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to
01S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
located from 00N-08N between 07W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SE-S winds are in the central Gulf, with moderate
to fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft west of 87W, and
3-6 ft east of 87W. No significant precipitation is currently
occurring across the region. Smoke and haze from agricultural
fires over southern Mexico and Central America may reduce
visibilities at times over the western and central Gulf.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast by early this evening,
reach from near Mobile, Alabama to the SW Gulf early Wed, then
stall over the northern Gulf through Wed night. The fresh to
strong southeast winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
Wed. The cold front will move southeastward across the rest of the
basin Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
follow in behind the front tonight into Wed. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds are expected across the western and central Gulf
this weekend and into early next week as high pressure in the wake
of the front shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western
Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting
fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean.
Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the
Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft in the northwest Caribbean and 3-6 ft
elsewhere. The northeast Pacific monsoon trough extends across
Panama and northwest Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is
located within 90 nm of the South American coast, across the
basin. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wildfires over
Central America are reducing visibilities below 6 nm in the Gulf
of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds
across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will
continue over the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras through Wed night. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke
due to agricultural fires in Central America are noted over most
the northwestern Caribbean. These conditions are likely to change
little through the end of the week. Stronger trade winds are
likely over the central Caribbean this weekend and into early next
week as Atlantic high pressure strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convection previously north of the Bahamas has diminished this
afternoon. Surface ridging extends westward from 1025 mb high
pressure north of the area near 34N44W to central Florida. NE to
E trades south of the ridge are generally moderate. A weak trough
extends from 31N48W to 28N54W. Another surface trough extends
from 31N28W to 21N33W. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the
tropical N Atlantic, except 2-4 ft north of 27N and west of 60W.

West of 65W, the gradient associated with a high pressure ridge
near 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across most of the
region through Wed night. A cold front is expected to move over
the far northwest waters early Thu and reach from near 31N76W to
the Straits of Florida early on Fri. The portion of the front
north of 25N will continue eastward to the far eastern waters Sat
night while gradually weakening, and as high pressure builds over
the area into early next week. Scattered showers and isolated will
precede the front.

East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish
Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally
be 3-6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep
convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

$$
KONARIK
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