[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N14W to 04N24W to 03S30W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to
03S34W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
located from 02N-08N between 07W-17W. Scattered moderate
convection is located from 00N-06N between 17W-29W, and from
01N-07N between 35W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SE-S winds are in the central Gulf north of 22N,
and in the southwest Gulf, with moderate to fresh return flow
elsewhere west of 87W. Gentle to moderate return flow is noted
east of 87W. Seas are 5-8 ft west of 87W, and 3-6 ft east of 87W.
No significant precipitation is currently occurring across the
region. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at times over
the western and central Gulf.

Fresh to strong southeast winds will continue over the central
Gulf today ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move
off the Texas coast this afternoon, stall over the northern Gulf
through Wed night, then move southeastward across the rest of the
basin Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are
expected across the western and central Gulf this weekend as high
pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure north of 31N in the western
Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting
fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwest Caribbean.
Trade winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the
Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the northwest Caribbean and 3-6 ft
elsewhere. The northeast Pacific monsoon trough extends across
Panama and northwest Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring south of 12N and west of 77W as well
as south of 13N between 58W-65W. Smoke and haze from agricultural
and wildfires over Central America are reducing visibilities
below 7 nm in the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trades across
much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist
over the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras,
through mid-week. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke are
possible in the northwest Caribbean from agricultural fires in
Central America. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central
Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak low to mid level feature is supporting a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms from 27N-29N between 76W-80W. Surface ridging
extends westward from 1026 mb high pressure north of the area near
34N45W to central Florida. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
generally moderate. A weak trough extends from 31N48W to 28N55W
with a few showers. Another surface trough extends from 31N28W to
21N33W with scattered showers on either side of the trough. Seas
are generally 4-7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic, except 2-4 ft
north of 27N and west of 60W.

West of 65W, a ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate winds
across most of the region through mid-week. A cold front is
expected to move east of northern Florida Thu night, then move
across the waters north of 24N through Sat while gradually
weakening.

East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish
Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally
be 3-6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep
convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

$$
Lewitsky
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