[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 03N22W to 01N31W, where it transitions the ITCZ, to
01S43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located south
of 07N from 10W to 26W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 03N and 06N between 37W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong SE to S winds west of
90W across the central and western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across
the area. No significant precipitation is currently occurring
across the region. Smoke and haze from agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities at
times over the SW Gulf.

Fresh to strong SE winds will continue in the central Gulf today
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move off the
Texas coast this afternoon, stall over the northern Gulf through
Wed night, then move SE across the rest of the basin Thu through
Fri. Moderate to fresh SE winds are expected across the western
and central Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure north of 30N in the western
Atlantic and lower pressures over Central America is supporting
fresh to locally strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean. Trade winds
are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The NE
Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama, and NW
Colombia. Scattered showers are occurring south of 12N and west of
77W as well as south of 12N between 58W and 63W. Smoke and haze
from agricultural and wildfires over Central America are reducing
visibilities below 7 nm in the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trades over much
of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist over
the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, through mid-
week. Hazy sky conditions and areas of smoke are possible in the
NW Caribbean from agricultural fires in Central America. Stronger
trade winds are likely over the central Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging extends westward from 1024 mb high pressure near
33N51W to central Florida. NE to E trades south of the ridge are
generally moderate to fresh, except for fresh E winds just north
of Hispaniola. A weak stationary front extends from 31N48W to
30N55W with no significant winds and a few showers. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic.

West of 65W, the ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate winds
across most of the region through mid-week. A cold front is
expected to move east of northern Florida Thu night, then move
across the waters N of 24N through Sat while gradually weakening.

East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow trade winds to diminish
Wed through Fri, becoming gentle to moderate. Seas will generally
be 3 to 5 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No significant deep
convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

$$
Mundell
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