[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 01N28W, where it transitions the ITCZ to 01S43W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is located
south of 06N east of 25W. Scattered strong convection is occurring
from 02N and 06N between 33W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda High near 33N53W
and a 994 mb low over NE Mexico is forcing fresh to strong SE to
S winds across the central and W Gulf this evening. Seas are
mostly 4-6 ft across the area. No significant precipitation is
currently occurring across the region. Smoke and haze from
agricultural and wildfires over Mexico and Central America are
reducing visibilities down to 3 to 5 nmi over the central and W
Gulf.

Fresh to strong SE winds will continue over the central Gulf
through Tue ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will
move off the Texas coast Tue afternoon, briefly stall over the
northern Gulf during mid-week, then move SE across the rest of the
basin Thu through Fri. Moderate to fresh SE winds are expected
across the western and central Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda High near 33N53W
and lower pressures over Central America are supporting fresh to
strong SE trades over the NW Caribbean. E to SE trades are gentle
to fresh across the remainder of the Caribbean. Seas are 5-6 ft
in the NW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The NE Pacific monsoon
trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia.
Scattered showers are occurring south of 12N and west of 77W as
well as south of 12N between 58W and 63W. Smoke and haze from
agricultural and wildfires over Central America are reducing
visibilities down to 3 to 5 nmi over the Gulf of Honduras.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades
across much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE winds will
persist over the NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras
through mid-week. Stronger trade winds are likely over the central
Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging extends westward from 1026 mb Bermuda High near
33N53W to near the NE Florida coast. NE to E trades south of the
ridge are generally moderate to fresh, except for fresh to strong
E winds just north of Hispaniola. A weak stationary front extends
from 31N50W to 30N55W with no significant winds, though scattered
showers exist within 60 nmi of the front. Farther east, a
dissipating occluded front is present from 31N24W to 24N25W with
scattered showers existing within 60 nmi of the front. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft across the tropical N Atlantic.

West of 65W, the ridge along 27N-28N will support moderate winds
across most of the region through mid-week. A cold front is
expected to move east of northern Florida Thu night, then move
across the waters N of 24N through Sat while gradually weakening.

East of 65W, a weakening ridge will allow the NE to E trades to
diminish to gentle to moderate from Wed through Fri. Seas will
generally be 3 to 5 ft across the tropical N Atlantic. No
significant deep convection is expected away from the ITCZ/monsoon
trough.

$$
Landsea
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