[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 05 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of western Africa
near 09N14W to 04N20W to 00N34W. The ITCZ begins near 00N34W and
continues to 01N42W to near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 00N to 08N E of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 29N91W to 24N98W. Scattered showers
are within 60 n mi of the front, and moderate northeasterly
winds are noted west of the front. A surface trough extends from
28N92W through a 1010 mb low centered near 21N95W to 18N94W.
A weak diurnal surface trough is over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Neither of these features are producing significant
convection. Hazy sky conditions associated with agricultural
fires over southern Mexico are reducing visibilities across the
SW Gulf of Mexico. Hazy skies and areas of smoke are likely to
continue for several more days. Across the remainder of the Gulf
basin, generally fair weather prevails with gentle to moderate
winds.

The cold front will become stationary over the northern Gulf
this afternoon. High pressure building in behind it will act to
push the eastern part of the front to the far eastern Gulf by
early Fri evening. Mooderate to fresh southeast winds are
expected in the western and central Gulf this weekend and into
early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally moderate to locally fresh easterly trades cover the
majority of the basin, except fresh to strong SE winds are
likely still continuing north of Honduras in the NW
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery
shows a line of moderate showers, associated with the monsoon
trough that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama
to northern Colombia, continues over the southwest Caribbean S
of 11N. Scattered patches of showers embedded in the trade winds
are noted mainly E of 77W.

The ridge north of the area will support moderate
trade winds over much of the basin this week. Fresh to strong SE
winds will continue in the NW Caribbean, including Gulf of
Honduras, through tonight. Hazy sky conditions and areas of
smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America are expected
to continue through the end of the week. Stronger trades are
likely in the central Caribbean on Sun as high pressure builds
to the north.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge extends across the entire subtropical Atlantic,
anchored by high pressure centers analyzed near 35N23W, 34N37W,
and a 1024 mb high near 27N61W. This ridge is responsible
for a large, expansive area of gentle to moderate winds, 2 to 4
ft seas, and fair weather across most of the central and western
Atlantic Ocean, north of 15N-20N, east of 50W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters south
of 15N-20N. The only other surface feature of note is a trough
over the eastern Atlantic that extends from 31N32W to 27N34W,
generating scattered showers.

The ridge along 27N will support gentle to moderate winds across
most of the region through tonight. A cold front will move over
the northwest waters Thu night, and reach from 31N76W to the
Straits of Florida on Fri. The northern part of the front will
continue eastward across the northern forecast waters through
Sat night while weakening. A high pressure ridge will build
along 31N in the wake of the front through Sun night. The ridge
will shift eastward Mon as another cold front approaches the far
NW waters.

$$
Latto
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