[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient developing
across he south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of
the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue
to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern
Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early
morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through
Thu night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early
morning hours with the gale force winds.

Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N20W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 02S43W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within
300 nm on either sides of the boundaries, with moderate
convection concentrated from the Equator to 05N between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has stalled across the basin and extends from near
the mouth of Tampa Bay to 25N93.5W, where it remains stationary to
18N94W. Scattered showers prevailed along and north of the front
north of 27.5N. Midday scatterometer data showed strong NW winds
over the western Gulf from the Bay of Campeche west of 94W and
from 25N-27N and west of 90W. A surface trough is noted ahead of
the front in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 23N90W.
Light to gentle variable winds are noted southeast of the front
across the remainder of the area.

The front is expected to retreat northward as a warm front and
move inland tonight. The next cold front will move off the Texas
coast by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected behind the next front with gale-force winds developing
behind the front near Tampico and Veracruz on Thu morning, and
continue through Thu night. Winds across the Gulf will diminish
by the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Midday scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong easterly
trades across central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere. Fresh winds were also noted in the Gulf of
Honduras and across the approach to the WindWard Passage. Seas
remain in the 8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest
offshore of northern Colombia, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere.
Fair weather conditions prevail across the region, with quick-
moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow.

High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage through Wed night. Winds will increase
fresh to strong as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Passage
Thu night into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the western Atlantic today, but has
begun to stall, and extends from 31N74W to 27.5N80W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and in the
vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high
pressure bridging across a cold front and into the central
Atlantic near 27N54W. The cold front enters the forecast area
from 31N34W to 27.5N45W to 31N54W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail S of 24N with seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. Gentle to
locally moderate NE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6 ft
range. A 1014 mb low previously over the Canary Islands has
shifted NE to near 34N13W.

The cold front across the W Atlantic will stall and lift
northward tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of
the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage
mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast
to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu reaching from near
Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds with
building seas are expected in the wake of the front.

$$
Stripling
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