[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient developing
across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north
of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will
continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of
northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and
early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue
through Thu night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late
night/early morning hours with the gale force winds.

Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 05N23W to
00N39W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90
nm on either side of the boundaries between the coast of Africa to
20W and between 32W to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Clearwater, Florida into
the central Gulf where the stalled front is beginning to lift
north as a warm front as of 0300 UTC. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms prevail north of the front within 120 nm of the
Alabama coastline and the Florida Panhandle. Scatterometer data
reveals gentle to moderate E winds are across most of the basin
with the exception of the Bay of Campeche where NE-N winds are
moderate to fresh. Seas range from 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf and
3-6 ft elsewhere reaching 7 ft in the extreme SW Gulf.

The stationary front is expected to retreat northward as a warm
front and move inland tonight. The next cold front will move off
the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected behind the front with gale-force winds
developing behind the front near Tampico and Veracruz on Thu
morning and will continue through Thu night. Winds across the Gulf
will diminish by the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

An ASCAT pass from 0200 UTC noted fresh to strong trades in the
eastern Caribbean, strong to near gale force winds in the central
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Caribbean.
Some showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Costa
Rica, otherwise, no significant precipitation is present across
the basin. Seas range from 7-11 ft across the eastern and central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft in the
extreme NW Caribbean.

High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force
near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE
winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Thu night.
Winds will increase to fresh to strong as a cold front
approaches the Yucatan Passage and the NW Caribbean Thu night
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the western Atlantic today, but has
begun to stall, and extends from 32N68W to the central coast of
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
along and in the vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1029 mb high pressure bridging across a cold front and into the
central Atlantic near 27N54W. The cold front enters the forecast
area from 32N31W to 27N40W to 28N51W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail S of 20N with seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle
to locally moderate NE winds are N of 20 N with seas in the 5 to 7
ft range.

The cold front across the W Atlantic will stall and lift
northward tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of
the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage
mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is
forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu reaching from
near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds with
building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Conditions
will improve by late Fri into Sat.

$$
Mora
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