[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu
night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early
morning hours with the gale force winds.

Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02S43W. Scattered
Showers and thunderstorms are noted within 300 nm on either
sides of the boundaries, with moderate convection concentrated
from the Equator to 05N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 27N82W to 25N93W, then transitions to
a stationary front to 18N94W. Scattered showers prevailed along
the front. Strong NW near-gale force winds are noted over the
western Gulf from the Bay of Campeche west of 94W and from
25N-27N and west of 90W. A surface trough is noted ahead of the
front in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 23N90W. Light
to gentle variable winds are noted southeast of the front across
the remainder of the area.

The cold front moving across the northern Gulf, will continue
to move southeast today. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and
building seas behind the front will begin to dissipate this
afternoon. The front will extend from central Florida to central
Bay of Campeche this afternoon, then lift as a warm front
tonight. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed
evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front with
near gale-force winds near Tampico and Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly trades
across central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere. Fresh winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras
and across the approach to the WindWard Passage. Seas are in the
8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest offshore of
northern Colombia, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather
conditions prevail across the region, with quick-moving showers
embedded in the trade wind flow.

High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage through Wed night. Winds will increase
fresh to strong as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Passage
Thu night into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the western Atlantic, extending from
31N73W to 28N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
along and in the vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1025 mb high centered near 26N43W. Another cold front enters the
Forecast area from 31N38W to 31N58W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail S of 25N with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle
to locally moderate NE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to
6 ft range. A 1011 mb low is centered over the Canary Islands
near 29N17W.

The cold front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida this
afternoon, stall and lift northward tonight. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds
near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night.
Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night
into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh
to strong winds with building seas are expected in the wake of the
front.

$$
Torres
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