[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu
night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early
morning hours with the gale force winds.

Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 09N14W to
05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00S32W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of the
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 29N83W to 24N94W to 19N95W. Scattered
showers prevail along the front. Strong to near-gale force winds
are noted over the western Gulf from 20N-25N and west of 96W.
Fresh northerly winds prevail elsewhere north of the front, while
light to gentle variable winds are noted south of the front across
the remainder of the area.

The front will extend from central Florida to central Bay of
Campeche this afternoon, then dissipate by tonight. A second cold
front will move off the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to
strong winds are expected behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts near-gale force winds across
the south-central Caribbean outside of the gale area, while
moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh winds are also noted
in the Gulf of Honduras and across the approach to the WindWard
Passage. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean,
the highest offshore of northern Colombia, and in the 5-7 ft
range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the
region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow.

High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the
forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast
of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere
across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras through late this morning. Fresh
NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the western Atlantic, extending from
32N78W to 30N81W. Scattered showers are noted along and in the
vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high
centered near 27N44W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S
of 25N with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to locally
moderate NE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. A
1011 mb low is centered over the Canary Islands near 29N17W.

The cold front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida this
afternoon, stall and weaken over the north waters on tonight, then
lift northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south
of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward
Passage mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is
forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu reaching from
near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the wake of the front.

$$
ERA
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