[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south-
central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and
lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia,
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning
hours. These conditions are expected to continue through at lead
the middle of the week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the
late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter the
Gulf of Mexico today. As the front moves SE across the area, NW
winds reaching gale-force are expected to develop from 21N-25N
between 96W-98W by 18Z today and continue through Sun night. Seas
will range between 8-10 ft with strongest winds.

Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center on the website:
www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on these warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N14W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W to 02S35W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either
sides of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic to across the basin
supporting moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the area.
A plume of low-level moisture shown in Layered Precipitable Water
imagery supports areas of dense fog over the north-central and
western gulf W of 90W. The fog will dissipate by the morning
hours. An area of patchy smoke is analyzed across the Bay of
Campeche. These conditions will diminish by tonight.

The cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning
following by fresh to strong northerly winds. Winds will reach
minimal gale force this afternoon through tonight near the Tampico
area, with seas building to 10 ft. The front will extend from
central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on Mon afternoon,
become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward Mon night into
Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move off the Texas
coast by Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds across the
south-central Caribbean within 90 nm of the Colombia coast. Fresh
to strong trades are noted in the Gulf of Honduras, across the
approach to the WindWard Passage, south of Hispaniola, southwest
of Puerto Rico and in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft
range in the central Caribbean, the highest offshore of northern
Colombia, and mainly in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather
conditions prevail across the region, with quick-moving showers
embedded in the trade wind flow.

High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force
near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon, and in the
Windward Passage through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge anchored prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1027 mb high centered near 32N33W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail S of 25N with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle
to locally moderate SE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6
ft range.

The surface ridge will prevail across the area through the
weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast
tonight, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon, stall
and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then lift
northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of
the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage
mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast
to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net